[ExI] The AI Superforecasters Are Here

[BillK]

On Fri, 3 Jul 2026 at 11:49, John Clark via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> The AI Superforecasters Are Here
>
> The following is a quote from the above:
> "If the trendline does keep going, things start changing quickly. Finance gets transformed first, as human stock analysts go the way of horse-drawn carriages and kerosene lamps. The opportunity for smart humans to consistently make money on prediction markets likewise dries up - instead, bots duel other bots for the privilege of collecting money from dumb sports fans. [...] I asked the AI superforecasters the probability of a US-China treaty to slow down AI, enforced by cryptographic verification of data center activity. FutureSearch said 1%; Preseen, 2.2%."
> _______________________________________________


The article predicts that within a year, these specialised forecaster
AIs will far surpass human forecasters. And for most cases, an
off-the-shelf chatbot will be better at forecasting than most humans.
This is partly because many human forecasters "talk their book". i.e.,
they are trying to sell you something, which biases their forecasting.

I liked the remark that "Every day, I see smart, tech-savvy people on
Twitter voice opinions which a moment’s consultation with an AI  would
reveal to be definitely false and stupid. We all have geniuses in our
pocket willing to advise us on everything."
Definitely worth remembering!

BillK