[ExI] AI 2040

[Keith Henson]

On Thu, Jul 16, 2026 at 3:53 PM Brent Allsop via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Hi Keith,
> Moving on to a life form superior to humans isn't really going extinct, is
> it?
>

If everyone uploads and the uploads don't reproduce, or (somehow) reproduce
inside the simulation, then I think a biologist would consider them
biologically extinct even if none die.

On the other hand, maybe they do reproduce inside the simulation. Tabby's
star and the others like it would indicate they might reproduce because
what evidence we have indicates they have spread out and population growth
would cause that.

Can we even imagine what reproduction inside a simulation would be like?
Talk about designer kids. In "The Clinic Seed" I sidestepped that by
assuming no reproduction due to no deaths. Reproduction in a no death world
would cause an interesting population crisis even in a simulated world.

And do we share computation resources with AIs? Do they reproduce as well?
The only SF I have seen that even comes close is Charles Stross's
_Accelerando_.

Keith

>
>
>
> On Thu, Jul 16, 2026 at 2:44 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> 20 years ago, I wrote a story that made the case that the very best
>> aligned AI, coupled with human desires, could cause the race to go extinct.
>> Nobody has ever refuted the central idea in that story.
>>
>> Keith
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Jul 16, 2026 at 11:18 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, 16 July, 2026 10:54 AM
>>> *To:* spike at rainier66.com
>>> *Cc:* ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] AI 2040
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, Jul 16, 2026 at 10:29 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Plan A*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *>…This Plan, the one they like the best and the one I hate the most, is
>>> to coordinate between the US and China to slow the development of AI…*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *The notion that the US and China are the AI players that matter
>>> understates Israel. *
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *>…Good point. 14 Israelis have won Nobel prizes and that is a huge
>>> number for such a tiny country.  *
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *John K Clark*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Ja there is that, but specifically in the area of software development,
>>> they are towering giants, never mind brains per capita (is there a Nobel
>>> prize for software (there aughta be.))  They figured out how to do some
>>> software things that the US couldn’t do, even though we yanks threw a a ton
>>> of money at it.  In the end, the Israelis won the contract. Their software
>>> tech is now part of their Iron Dome.  We built the rockets, the propulsion
>>> system, the vehicle controls hardware, the kill vehicle, the kill vehicle
>>> controls software, the mobile carrier, then Israelis wrote the system level
>>> control software and the simulator.  *
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *That’s been over 25 years ago but I remember it like it was yesterday.
>>> Oh that was a truly bad ego buster for yank controls engineers.  They
>>> whooped our gentile asses in system-level controls software, beat us in
>>> every competition in that category.  I was primarily a hardware guy, but I
>>> have friends who were most demoralized.  One left the company and went to
>>> live in Israel.  He never wrote to us.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *spike  *
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
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