[ExI] shiller pe ratio near record high

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] shiller pe ratio near record high

On Wed, Jun 24, 2026 at 12:12 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:
> It occurred to me that I am betting against the singularity.

Only against the imminent, very-near-term Singularity - which seems correct.  SpaceX hasn't actually put any large data centers in space yet; they just have plans to do so eventually.

"Will it happen by the end of 2030?" is a different question from "Will it happen by the end of June 2026?", given as we are in the middle of June 2026.

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Ah, about that, thanks.  I hope someone here can talk me outta this ncollowing analysis, so I can return to my superbull self, where I am most comfortable.

It feels like SpaceX is all about that data center in space.  If you listen to the hype, it is all about how there is pleeeeenty of energy up there, and Elon can lift it.  Since he now owns the heavy lift, the solar panel manufacturing, a big piece of the chip fab, the AI, it appears that one guy owns the stack.  But I think he doesn't, and there is an important flaw in the reasoning: there isn't plenty of energy in space, rather there isn't nearly enough of it.  

Second and more important: there isn't plenty of capacity to get rid of waste heat.  Space is cold, but we are still slaves, helpless captives of the cruel Stefan Boltzmann law.  That whole T to the fourth notion is great, but... the T in a microchip isn't hot enough.  Elon tells us that his researchers are working on chips which run hotter, which is good, since doubling the absolute temperature increases the radiative heat loss by a factor of 16, hurray.  But... it also means the chip uses a lotta power, which we also don't have enough of.

It's déjà vu all over again.  Working with Robert Bradbury on M-brains a long time ago, I kept getting tangled up in thermal considerations, which Robert always waved off without ever actually participating in generating the equations.  Now the same is happening again with Elon's notion, a long time before we get anywhere near the ethereal M-brain notion.

Help me Rhonda or any other thermal hipsters here: show me where I err.  How can a data center exist in orbit?  How do we get enough energy to it and how do we get rid of the waste heat?  A big ground-based system in Wyoming is looking a lot more attractive at the moment.  If I can't solve these heat/energy balance equations, I will not buy a shilling of SpaceX, not a farthing.

spike