[ExI] shiller pe ratio near record high

[John Clark]

On Wed, Jun 24, 2026 at 12:13 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

*> it feels like cash is a fine asset to be holding in summer of 26.  *


*Maybe, but in the summer of 26 "cash" means fiat currency.  In the summer
of 28 I'm not certain what "cash" will mean.*

*> I am betting SpaceX will go lower.  *


*I think that's probably true, but I'm not certain enough to short the
company.  *

*> It’s one of those cases where it is a great company but not a great
> stock.*


*But is SpaceX a great company? Maybe, but remember, in the 19th century
smart people realize that railroads would revolutionize the economy of the
US and as a result hundreds of different railroad companies were started
but, although they were right about the railroads revolutionizing the
economy, nearly all the people that bought those new railroad company's
stock lost all their money because the companies went belly up. And the
same thing was true for people who invested in new telegraph and telephone
companies with names that nobody remembers today. And in the early 2000s
people were right that the Internet would revolutionize the economy, but
pets.com <http://pets.com> still went bankrupt. *

*And there's something else, I just don't trust Elon Musk.  *

*But I can find no reason to distrust Jensen Huang so I bought some Nvidia
stock, and Warren Buffett said TSMC was one of the best managed companies
in the world so I bought some of their stock (OK he also said he didn't own
the stock because he didn't like the company's geography, so I took a
chance). I also bought ASML stock because Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography
was the only practical way I could think of creating the sort of resolution
that chip companies were demanding, and they were the only one pursuing
EUL. *


*John K Clark*


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