[ExI] biggest insights on the singularity

[spike at rainier66.com]

Over the past three decades I have been hanging out on this forum, we have
discussed many interesting things, such as the singularity.  After all this
time, all these years pondering the many aspects of it, after reading
Kurzweil's books, Eliezer's posts, the other singularity thinkers, I don't
feel like we have that much better insights into the singularity than the
faceless masses.

 

I like having any prediction as clearly definable, so that we can make bets
on it.  One such example would be when will the singularity occur.  But. we
don't really know when to mark that date.  One could reasonably argue that
the singularity doesn't happen in one day or even necessarily one year, but
it will happen.  If so, we can reasonably argue that it is happening now,
and started in about November 2022 when ChatGPT showed up without warning.
Then all the stuff we are struggling with now is completely foreseeable: AI
in weapons, AI enabling illegal mass surveillance, etc.  But we still can't
really determine when it started and when to mark the ending (assuming the
singularity doesn't end with the complete destruction of mankind.)

 

It isn't clear to me we have much to show for over three decades of
pondering the singularity.

 

spike

 

 

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