[ExI] biggest insights on the singularity

[John Clark]

On Sun, Mar 1, 2026 at 2:11 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:



> * > I don’t feel like we have that much better insights into the
> singularity than the faceless masses.*
>

*I think I do, that's why I don't get all bent out of shape over
trivialities like global warming, the war on Christmas, illegal
immigration, men in women's sports, or the national debt.  *


> *> I like having any prediction as clearly definable, so that we can make
> bets on it.  One such example would be when will the singularity occur. *
>

*A logical person would never make such a bet because it's a lose-lose
proposition. If I bet the Singularity will happen by date X and it doesn't
happen then I have to pay up, but if it does happen then I'll either be
dead because of it or I'll be so rich because of it I won't need your
measly few dollars. *


*John K Clark*





> But… we don’t really know when to mark that date.  One could reasonably
> argue that the singularity doesn’t happen in one day or even necessarily
> one year, but it will happen.  If so, we can reasonably argue that it is
> happening now, and started in about November 2022 when ChatGPT showed up
> without warning.  Then all the stuff we are struggling with now is
> completely foreseeable: AI in weapons, AI enabling illegal mass
> surveillance, etc.  But we still can’t really determine when it started and
> when to mark the ending (assuming the singularity doesn’t end with the
> complete destruction of mankind.)
>
>
>
> It isn’t clear to me we have much to show for over three decades of
> pondering the singularity.
>
>
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
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