[ExI] Trump suggests letting Iran ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> 
…

 

>>>…The reason is rooted in evolutionary psychology … bleak future…

 

>>So true.  However… In 2016, 2020 and 2024, the USA was at peace and the economy was prosperous.  In all three election years, the incumbent party was turned out.  

 

>…The US was not uniformly prosperous. There were large parts that were relatively worse off then they had been previously….

 

If we go with the notion that increasing nonuniformity in prosperity causes the voters to turn out the incumbent party every four years, that makes sense and is a useful insight for betting purposes.

 

As an added bonus, it is good for the country to switch mainstream parties every four years for the executive branch, every two years for both houses of congress, ideally with the two houses of congress controlled by opposing parties.

 

 >…  If we call on bleak future wartime memes, we can’t explain 2024.

>…Sure we can. if you look at the parts of the country that voted MAGA, they were relatively depressed….

 

However they were bringing back a POTUS who had no new wars during his first term.  His opponent was got the USA involved in a coalition to defend Ukraine.  The bleak future = war notion would suggest the poorest sections of the country would go to the other guy.

>…There is a lot of noise in such things as elections. EP gives ;you the general drift of social movements without an exact correlation to elections.  Keith

 

Ja.  I need a theory to guide me in betting.  EP at least in this case is too general to make money on it.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

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