[ExI] well, that stuff really is expensive

[Keith Henson]

As you point out, urban folks for the most part have a positive view of the
future. I don't think rural folks are the core of MAGA. I think it is
largely in places that were prosperous and have been hollowed out of
economic activity, mainly from offshoring production to China and other
places with cheap labor. Much of this would have happened anyway as
technical advances have reduced the number of people working in a range of
industries. Steelmaking, for example, employs a tiny fractionfor roughly
the same production it die50 years ago.

 Economic activity has been low in Appalachia for a long time. The
prospects, while poor, have not gotten worse in either reality or
perception. So I would not expect a high number of MAGA people there. Maybe
you can tell us, Spike.

Social movements or the lack of them can always be accounted for by EP.

Keith


On Thu, Oct 22, 2026 at 1:53 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

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> *From:* Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] well, that stuff really is expensive
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> On Thu, Oct 22, 2026 at 7:18 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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> *snip*
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> *>>… the voters chose him twice because they see in him a reliable
> socialism fighter. spike*
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> >…I really doubt that. An EP model indicates that irrational leaders
> become attractive in the lead up to wars. The lead up to wars is triggered
> by a bleak outlook for the population. Consider where MAGA is most popular
> and it fits this model. Incidentally, absolute economic collapse is not
> required, just an outlook that is worse than what people are used to.
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> Keith
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> If we divide the country into rural and urban, we note a very different
> attitude.  We urban types (likely nearly everyone here) think of growth as
> essential.  If we don’t see at least about 5% growth in our portfolio every
> year, we consider that year slow.  If it is 0% that is a failure.  Any
> negative percentage a catastrophe.  We are growth oriented.
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> Consider rural people.  I see no evidence they are focused on growth.  In
> very general terms, they have little in stock portfolios, they don’t tend
> to have a lot of savings and investments.  They tend to have equipment and
> fertile land (whether or not it is under cultivation, they have it.)
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> Everywhere I went in Appalachia, I saw people who have little by the way
> we measure it: their net worth is very low, because their land value is
> low.  But they are cool with 0% growth.  If they are getting by, well good
> enough.  They are doing as their fathers, great grandfathers, great great
> great grandfathers did on that land going way back.  I saw no outward
> indications of a bleak outlook.  On the contrary, I saw optimism.
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> But I see plenty of bleak outlook in cities, plenty.
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> Then something important occurred to me.  In those Appalachian regions,
> things change only very slowly if they ever change at all.  People who are
> born there who are dissatisfied with pokey old country life leave.  My
> grandparents did, and my parents subsequently opted for faster lane.  I
> opted for still faster lane, and if I could find one faster than this one,
> I am outta here.  So what if… this shapes a culture: people who want life
> in the fast lane go there, concentrating fast laners in the big cities,
> particularly the go-go high investment cities such as San Francisco, San
> Jose, Austin TX, Miami, etc.  Some born in those hustle-your-ass cities
> want a slower life.  So they go to rural America to live.
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> Repeat the cycle several generations.  The hyperactives (me for instance)
> leave the pokey places and move to more hyper places, and breed hyper
> children.  The pokey places are left with those more likely to breed pokey
> children.  Unnatural selection in action.  After a few generations, those
> who live in pokey places are content with slow growth.  Those of us who
> opted for life in the fast lane want more more more faster faster faster.
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> That model has nothing to do with EP, but rather attitude toward change.
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> spike
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