[ExI] well, that stuff really is expensive

Fri Oct 23 01:14:03 UTC 2026

From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com> 
Sent: Thursday, 22 October, 2026 5:08 PM
To: spike at rainier66.com
Cc: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>; John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] well, that stuff really is expensive

As you point out, urban folks for the most part have a positive view of the future. I don't think rural folks are the core of MAGA. I think it is largely in places that were prosperous and have been hollowed out of economic activity, mainly from offshoring production to China and other places with cheap labor. Much of this would have happened anyway as technical advances have reduced the number of people working in a range of industries. Steelmaking, for example, employs a tiny fractionfor roughly the same production it die50 years ago. 

 Economic activity has been low in Appalachia for a long time. The prospects, while poor, have not gotten worse in either reality or perception. So I would not expect a high number of MAGA people there. Maybe you can tell us, Spike.

Social movements or the lack of them can always be accounted for by EP.

Keith

Keith after this article appeared but before the election of 2016, my cousin and genealogy collaborator Brandon Kirk sent me a link to it.  That cousin is the subject of the last part of that article.  The photo on the wall behind him are our (Brandon’s and my) great^3 grandparents.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/in-the-heart-of-trump-country

I posted a note to the article’s author, Larissa MacFarquhar, thanking her for what seemed to me an even-handed or even generous treatment of the Logan county people, which is ground zero for my family.  Lincoln county is probably more ground zero, but Logan would be second.  Logan is where two of my grandparents left in about 1947 for a more modern fast paced life.  Larissa is the nicest lady.  She and I exchanged several notes.

I spent time in both Lincoln and Logan counties.  Both seemed optimistic, with no indications I could find for war memes.  The people there were so nice, helpful, eager to yak your afternoon away if you let them.  What I got from it is the West Virginians and Kentuckians were well aware they were lagging behind economically, but it didn’t seem to bother them at all.  There is little or no risk of unemployment, for there was pleeeenty of work to do out there.  The work didn’t pay much, but there was plenty of it to do, and no risk of starvation or homelessness, where unoccupied but still serviceable homes are plentiful.

In stark contrast, where I live, one must be damn good at something to earn enough to make rent, never mind food.  The risk of homelessness hovers ever present like circling vultures.

It feels at times that while evolutionary psychology theory is very powerful, it can be overworked.

spike

On Thu, Oct 22, 2026 at 1:53 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

From: Keith Henson <hkeithhenson at gmail.com <mailto:hkeithhenson at gmail.com> > 
Subject: Re: [ExI] well, that stuff really is expensive

On Thu, Oct 22, 2026 at 7:18 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

snip

>>… the voters chose him twice because they see in him a reliable socialism fighter. spike

>…I really doubt that. An EP model indicates that irrational leaders become attractive in the lead up to wars. The lead up to wars is triggered by a bleak outlook for the population. Consider where MAGA is most popular and it fits this model. Incidentally, absolute economic collapse is not required, just an outlook that is worse than what people are used to.

Keith

If we divide the country into rural and urban, we note a very different attitude.  We urban types (likely nearly everyone here) think of growth as essential.  If we don’t see at least about 5% growth in our portfolio every year, we consider that year slow.  If it is 0% that is a failure.  Any negative percentage a catastrophe.  We are growth oriented.

Consider rural people.  I see no evidence they are focused on growth.  In very general terms, they have little in stock portfolios, they don’t tend to have a lot of savings and investments.  They tend to have equipment and fertile land (whether or not it is under cultivation, they have it.)

Everywhere I went in Appalachia, I saw people who have little by the way we measure it: their net worth is very low, because their land value is low.  But they are cool with 0% growth.  If they are getting by, well good enough.  They are doing as their fathers, great grandfathers, great great great grandfathers did on that land going way back.  I saw no outward indications of a bleak outlook.  On the contrary, I saw optimism.

But I see plenty of bleak outlook in cities, plenty.

Then something important occurred to me.  In those Appalachian regions, things change only very slowly if they ever change at all.  People who are born there who are dissatisfied with pokey old country life leave.  My grandparents did, and my parents subsequently opted for faster lane.  I opted for still faster lane, and if I could find one faster than this one, I am outta here.  So what if… this shapes a culture: people who want life in the fast lane go there, concentrating fast laners in the big cities, particularly the go-go high investment cities such as San Francisco, San Jose, Austin TX, Miami, etc.  Some born in those hustle-your-ass cities want a slower life.  So they go to rural America to live.

Repeat the cycle several generations.  The hyperactives (me for instance) leave the pokey places and move to more hyper places, and breed hyper children.  The pokey places are left with those more likely to breed pokey children.  Unnatural selection in action.  After a few generations, those who live in pokey places are content with slow growth.  Those of us who opted for life in the fast lane want more more more faster faster faster.  

That model has nothing to do with EP, but rather attitude toward change.

spike

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