[ExI] USA Wealth Tax Forecast
BillK
pharos at gmail.com
Sat Oct 31 20:33:51 UTC 2026
On Sat, 31 Oct 2026 at 19:50, spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> *If you are uncomfortable with betting money, no worries, we can do
> imaginary currency, respectars, which has its advantages: they are not
> taxable. I will bet you 100 respectars that three years from today, 31 Oct
> 2029, there will be no wealth tax at the federal level, and bet you another
> 100 that there will be no wealth tax in any US state. Just to make it
> fair, I will give you three to one odds: if I am wrong, I owe you 300
> respectars, or 600 if I lose both bets.*
>
>
>
> *Once you understand why I make those bets, you will understand why the
> current POTUS won two of the last three cycles in spite of fighting with
> the press and in spite of a distasteful personality: he was more trusted as
> a socialism fighter than two of his opponents.*
>
> * spike*
>
> _______________________________________________
>
I asked DeepSeek v4.1 to act as a Forecaster on these bets.
Spike is correct with high probability.
Don't bet against this forecast!
Complete Report below.
BillK
DeepSeek v4.1 DeepThink
------------------------------
FINAL SUMMARY
Question Point estimate 90% range Confidence Main reason Biggest risk Most
important update trigger
*No federal wealth tax by 31 Oct 2029* *97%* *93–99%* *High* Conjunctive
chain is formidable; no federal wealth tax has ever passed; bills remain in
committee. 2028 Democratic sweep + filibuster reform + judicial
validation. 2028
election outcome.
*No wealth tax in any US state by 31 Oct 2029* *87%* *78–94%*
*Moderate* California
Prop 40 is trailing and faces legal challenges; Oregon is at an early
stage; historical base rate is zero. Prop 40 passes narrowly and is upheld
quickly. California Prop 40 election result (Nov 2026).
*Joint: no wealth tax anywhere* *~84%* *75–92%* *Moderate* Both pathways
face high institutional and legal hurdles. A political wave that
simultaneously clears federal and state bottlenecks. 2028 election + Prop
40 result.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*(A) No federal wealth tax by 31 Oct 2029 — ~97%*
*(B) No wealth tax in any US state by 31 Oct 2029 — ~87%*
*(These are separate forecasts. If you require both conditions to hold
simultaneously — “no wealth tax anywhere” — the joint probability is
approximately 84–85%.)*
------------------------------
0. RESOLUTION FRAME
Element Federal question (A) State question (B)
*Event* No federal statute imposing an annual or one-time tax on net worth
/ total assets is enacted and in effect on 31 Oct 2029 No state statute
imposing an annual or one-time tax on net worth / total assets is enacted
and in effect in any US state on 31 Oct 2029
*Deadline* 31 Oct 2029 31 Oct 2029
*Metric* Enacted federal law, not merely introduced bill or campaign
proposal Enacted state law, not merely ballot initiative filed or bill
introduced
*YES* No such federal wealth tax exists on that date No such state wealth
tax exists in any state on that date
*NO* A federal wealth tax has been enacted and is in effect At least one
state wealth tax has been enacted and is in effect
*Ambiguity* Income-tax surcharges on “millionaires” (e.g. Washington’s 9.9%
income tax above $1M) are *not* wealth taxes; they tax income, not net
worth. Capital-gains or unrealised-gains taxes are also *not* classified as
wealth taxes for this resolution. Same distinction. California Prop 40 (5%
one-time tax on net worth) *is* a wealth tax. Oregon’s proposed “financial
assets tax” on net worth is a wealth tax.
*Assumption used:* “In effect” means the tax has been enacted, has not been
struck down by a court, and is legally operative on 31 Oct 2029. A tax that
has passed but is under an injunction or has been declared unconstitutional
is treated as *not in effect* for this forecast.
------------------------------
1. OUTSIDE VIEWFederal wealth tax
Reference class Base rate Period Similarity to current case
*US federal wealth-tax enactment* *0 of 0* — no federal wealth tax has ever
been enacted in US history 1789–2026 Exact match: the question is whether
the first-ever federal wealth tax will exist by 2029. The historical base
rate is effectively *0%*.
*Major new federal tax regimes from introduction to enactment* Very low in
a 3-year window; even landmark tax bills typically take multiple Congresses
and often require unified government plus a triggering fiscal crisis Modern
era Moderate similarity: the 2028 election could produce unified Democratic
control, but the Senate filibuster and constitutional hurdles remain.
*Anchor for (A):* The historical base rate is *0%*. A pure historical
anchor would put the probability of a federal wealth tax at near zero. The
only reason to move above zero is the possibility of a 2028 Democratic
sweep and subsequent legislative action. I therefore anchor at *~1–2%*
before considering the inside view.
State wealth tax
Reference class Base rate Period Similarity to current case
*State adoption of a broad-based net-worth tax* *0 states* have ever
adopted a broad-based wealth tax of the kind now proposed (excluding
property taxes, which are asset-specific) US history Exact match: no state
has ever enacted a California-Prop-40-style wealth tax. The base rate is
*0%*.
*State ballot initiatives on novel “tax the rich” measures* Mixed; some
pass in blue states, but controversial ones often fail or face legal
reversal 2010–2026 Moderate: California Prop 40 is the furthest advanced,
but polls show it trailing.
*Anchor for (B):* Historical base rate is *0%* for any state wealth tax.
The relevant question is whether the *first* state wealth tax will be
enacted and operative within the next 3 years. The existence of an active
ballot measure in California and an Oregon initiative for 2028 pushes this
above zero, but the base rate remains low. I anchor at *~5–8%* before the
inside view.
------------------------------
2. INSIDE VIEWFederal drivers
Driver Direction Importance Uncertainty Evidence that would confirm /
disconfirm
*2028 election outcome* A Democratic sweep ( presidency + Senate + House )
is the single most important pathway to federal wealth-tax legislation.
Even then, Senate filibuster and moderate-Democrat resistance are major
obstacles. *High* Very high: election is ~2 years away; current polling and
betting markets are incomplete and volatile. Confirmation: Democrats win
all three in 2028 and make wealth tax a top-100-day priority.
Disconfirmation: divided government or a Republican win.
*Senate filibuster / 60-vote threshold* Even with a Democratic Senate, a
wealth tax would likely need 60 votes or a carve-out. No indication that 60
votes exist. *High* High: Senate rules could change, but that is itself
uncertain. Confirmation: Senate Democrats abolish or carve out the
filibuster for tax bills. Disconfirmation: filibuster remains and fewer
than 60 senators support the bill.
*Constitutional viability* A federal wealth tax would almost certainly face
a direct-tax / apportionment challenge under the Constitution. *Moore v.
United States* left the question unresolved. Even if enacted, it could be
struck down before Oct 2029. *High* High: Supreme Court composition and
doctrine could change by 2029. Confirmation: Supreme Court upholds a
federal wealth tax. Disconfirmation: Court strikes it down or Congress
declines to act because of constitutional risk.
*Fiscal pressure* US debt has passed $40 trillion; bond-market pressure
could force Congress to consider new revenue sources. But wealth taxes are
not the consensus fiscal fix; most revenue options discussed are income-tax
or consumption-tax measures. *Moderate* Moderate: a fiscal crisis could
broaden the Overton window, but it would not necessarily favour a wealth
tax specifically. Confirmation: a major fiscal crisis prompts Congress to
consider wealth taxation as a primary revenue source. Disconfirmation:
Congress addresses fiscal pressure through spending cuts or other taxes.
*Federal bull case (event happens — i.e. a wealth tax IS enacted):*
-
*Fact:* The Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act (H.R. 8085 / S. 4246) has been
introduced with dozens of Democratic co-sponsors.
<https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr8085ih/xhtml/BILLS-119hr8085ih.html#1>
<https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119s4246is/xhtml/BILLS-119s4246is.html#1>
-
*Inference:* If Democrats win the presidency and both chambers in 2028,
a wealth tax could become a litmus-test priority.
-
*Speculation:* A severe fiscal crisis or a sharp rise in inequality
sentiment could make wealth taxation politically irresistible.
-
*Probability shift:* This pathway adds perhaps *2–4 percentage points*
to the federal wealth-tax probability, but it is still a long conjunctive
chain.
*Federal bear case (event does NOT happen — no wealth tax):*
-
*Fact:* J.P. Morgan Private Bank assessed in July 2026 that it is “very
unlikely that Congress will enact major tax legislation directly affecting
wealthy taxpayers” over the next 2.5 years, and that wealth-tax proposals
will not be “considered seriously at the federal level” in that window.
<https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/ideas-and-insights/will-there-be-a-us-wealth-tax-what-you-need-to-know?pid=&programName=20260722-NAM-ES-PLN-INV-Ideas&Insights&utm_source=email-pb&utm_medium=US-EN-planning&utm_campaign=20260723iiClient_C&utm_content=moduleB&mkt_tok=MzkyLUhLQy04NzYAAAGjLlwt1bk7LeBFpcOPKCI37atmNqT4qiR384s6ux4woNjuOOY8v_OXk08-ANO0Dq8iaScOkIT2bRIpAAX8oF4HiuW70snIzQeA_QlFIlS0dChefSc#1>
-
*Fact:* The Senate bills remain in committee; no Senate vote has been
held.
-
*Fact:* The Supreme Court has not upheld a federal wealth tax; *Moore*
explicitly left the issue open.
-
*Probability shift:* This evidence strongly suppresses the federal
probability, keeping it well below 5%.
State drivers
Driver Direction Importance Uncertainty Evidence that would confirm /
disconfirm
*California Prop 40 (Nov 2026 ballot)* This is the most advanced state
wealth-tax proposal. If it passes and survives legal challenge, California
would have a wealth tax before Oct 2029. But late polling shows it
*trailing*: PPIC 52% oppose / 46% support; Berkeley IGS 50% oppose / 42%
support. *High* Moderate-to-high: polls can be wrong, but a consistent late
deficit is a strong negative signal. Confirmation: Prop 40 passes and is
upheld by California courts. Disconfirmation: Prop 40 fails or is struck
down.
*Constitutional / legal challenges to state wealth taxes* Even if Prop 40
passes, it faces at least eight identified constitutional challenges,
including retroactivity, Commerce Clause, Equal Protection, and Takings. It
would likely be tied up in courts well beyond Oct 2029.
<https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/taxpayers-will-challenge-california-wealth-tax-proposal-if-it-passes#1>
*High* High: California courts could uphold or strike it down; timing of
final resolution is uncertain. Confirmation: California Supreme Court
upholds the tax and allows collection. Disconfirmation: injunction or
strike-down before Oct 2029.
*Oregon 2028 ballot initiative* A coalition has filed a wealth-tax
initiative for the November 2028 ballot. Even if it passes, it would need
to survive legal challenge and implementation before Oct 2029. *Moderate* High:
signature-gathering, ballot passage, and legal review are all
uncertain. Confirmation:
Oregon initiative qualifies, passes, and is upheld. Disconfirmation: fails
to qualify, fails at ballot, or is struck down.
*Rhode Island and other legislative proposals* Rhode Island has introduced
1% wealth-tax bills, but they remain in committee and the state instead
enacted a millionaire *income* tax. Similar proposals in Minnesota, New
York, etc., are not close to enactment. *Low-to-moderate* High: legislative
wealth taxes face even higher hurdles than ballot initiatives in most
states. Confirmation: a state legislature enacts a wealth tax.
Disconfirmation: proposals stall or are replaced by income-tax surcharges.
*State bull case (event happens — i.e. a state wealth tax IS enacted):*
-
*Fact:* California Prop 40 is on the November 2026 ballot and would
impose a 5% one-time tax on billionaires’ net worth.
<https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/news/multistate-monitor-tax-pros-delve-into-state-initiatives-to-tax-the-wealth/>
-
*Fact:* Oregon has an active initiative for 2028.
-
*Inference:* If Prop 40 passes and is upheld, it could inspire copycat
measures.
-
*Speculation:* A strong Democratic wave in 2028 could improve the odds
for Oregon and other blue-state initiatives.
-
*Probability shift:* These active proposals raise the state probability
above the historical zero, but the polling deficit and legal uncertainty
cap the shift.
*State bear case (event does NOT happen — no state wealth tax):*
-
*Fact:* No state has ever enacted a broad-based wealth tax; the
historical base rate is zero.
-
*Fact:* Prop 40 is trailing in late polls and would face immediate
constitutional challenge.
<https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/taxpayers-will-challenge-california-wealth-tax-proposal-if-it-passes#1>
-
*Fact:* Even if it passes, the tax is one-time for 2026 and could be
struck down before Oct 2029; implementation would likely be delayed by
litigation.
-
*Fact:* Other states are pursuing millionaire *income* taxes, not
net-worth taxes.
<https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/high-earner-and-wealth-taxes-vs-broad-rate-cuts-state-tradeoffs-ahead>
-
*Probability shift:* This evidence strongly favours the “no state wealth
tax” outcome, keeping the probability of at least one state wealth tax in
the *10–15% range*.
------------------------------
3. STRUCTURE CHECKFederal (A) — conjunctive chain
For a federal wealth tax to exist on 31 Oct 2029, *all* of the following
must occur:
1.
Democrats win the presidency in 2028.
2.
Democrats win at least 60 Senate seats *or* abolish/carve out the
filibuster for tax legislation.
3.
Congress passes a wealth-tax bill.
4.
The bill is signed into law.
5.
The Supreme Court (or a lower court) does not strike it down before 31
Oct 2029.
*Joint probability:* Even if each step were generously assigned 50–70%, the
product is low. The filibuster and constitutional steps are particularly
severe bottlenecks. This conjunctive structure strongly favours *YES (no
federal wealth tax)*.
State (B) — disjunctive pathway with timing and legal filters
For a state wealth tax to exist on 31 Oct 2029, *at least one* of the
following must occur:
-
*Pathway 1 (California):* Prop 40 passes in Nov 2026 *and* survives
legal challenge *and* is operative by Oct 2029.
-
*Pathway 2 (Oregon):* 2028 initiative qualifies *and* passes *and*
survives legal challenge *and* is operative by Oct 2029.
-
*Pathway 3 (other state):* A legislature or ballot initiative in another
state enacts a wealth tax *and* it survives legal challenge *and* is
operative by Oct 2029.
Because these are disjunctive, the probability of *at least one* state
wealth tax is higher than any single pathway. But each pathway is itself a
conjunction with low joint probability. The disjunction does *not* overcome
the fact that every pathway requires ballot/legislative success *and* legal
survival *and* implementation within 3 years.
*Structure-adjusted assessment:*
-
Federal: *~2–3%* probability of a wealth tax existing on 31 Oct 2029.
-
State: *~10–15%* probability of at least one state wealth tax existing
on 31 Oct 2029.
------------------------------
4. CALIBRATED FORECAST(A) No federal wealth tax by 31 Oct 2029
Metric Estimate
*Point probability* *97%*
*90% range* *93–99%*
*Confidence* *High*
*Main reason* The conjunctive chain is formidable: even a 2028 Democratic
sweep would likely encounter the Senate filibuster and serious
constitutional challenges. No federal wealth tax has ever been enacted, and
the current bills remain in committee.
*Biggest risk to this forecast* A 2028 Democratic landslide plus Senate
filibuster reform plus a Supreme Court that upholds a wealth tax. This is a
low-probability combination, but it is the main pathway to being wrong.
(B) No wealth tax in any US state by 31 Oct 2029
Metric Estimate
*Point probability* *87%*
*90% range* *78–94%*
*Confidence* *Moderate*
*Main reason* California Prop 40 is the only near-term vehicle, and it is
trailing in late polls and would face immediate constitutional litigation.
Oregon’s 2028 initiative is at an earlier stage. The historical base rate
for any state wealth tax is zero, and legal/implementation filters further
suppress the probability.
*Biggest risk to this forecast* Prop 40 passes despite polls, survives
expedited California Supreme Court review, and is collecting revenue by
2029 — or a similar surprise in Oregon or another state.
Joint probability (both A and B hold — no wealth tax anywhere)
If the two questions are treated as *independent*, the joint probability is:
0.97×0.87≈0.844≈84%
They are not perfectly independent — a federal wealth tax and a state
wealth tax could be correlated through the same political wave — but the
correlation is modest because the legal and institutional pathways are
different. A reasonable joint estimate is *83–86%*, rounded to *~84%*.
*Joint 90% range:* *75–92%*
*Joint confidence:* *Moderate*
------------------------------
5. RED TEAMStrongest argument against the forecasts
The strongest argument against *“no federal wealth tax”* is that the 2028
election could produce a unified Democratic government with a mandate to
tax extreme wealth, and Senate Democrats might abolish the filibuster to
pass it. If that happens, the Supreme Court could uphold the tax,
especially if the Court’s composition changes. In that scenario, a federal
wealth tax could exist by 2029.
The strongest argument against *“no state wealth tax”* is that California
Prop 40 could pass narrowly despite late polling (polls have missed on
ballot initiatives before), and the California Supreme Court could uphold
it on an expedited basis, allowing it to be operative before Oct 2029.
Oregon could also pass its 2028 initiative in a favourable political
environment.
Three most likely reasons the forecasts could be wrong
1.
*A political wave exceeds current expectations.* If Democrats win in a
landslide in 2028 and treat wealth taxation as a top priority, the federal
conjunctive chain becomes much shorter. *Approximate probability shift:
+5–10 percentage points toward a federal wealth tax.*
2.
*Polling error or late shift on Prop 40.* Late polls show Prop 40
trailing, but ballot-measure polls can misjudge turnout and undecided
voters. If Prop 40 passes, the state probability rises sharply, and the
legal challenge timeline becomes the key variable. *Approximate
probability shift: +10–15 percentage points toward a state wealth tax.*
3.
*Judicial composition or doctrine changes.* A Supreme Court that is more
receptive to wealth taxation, or a California court that upholds Prop 40
quickly, would remove a major bottleneck. *Approximate probability
shift: +5–10 percentage points in the relevant pathway.*
Pre-mortem: if the forecast is badly wrong, what most likely happened?
The most likely pre-mortem is: *Democrats won the 2028 election in a
landslide, abolished the Senate filibuster for tax legislation, and passed
a federal wealth tax — and the Supreme Court upheld it.*
Alternatively, *California
Prop 40 passed narrowly, the California Supreme Court upheld it on an
expedited basis, and it was collecting revenue by 2029, while Oregon’s
initiative also qualified and passed.* In either scenario, the forecasts
underweighted the speed and scale of political change.
------------------------------
6. UPDATE TRIGGERS
Indicator / event Direction Approximate magnitude
*2028 election outcome: Democratic sweep (presidency + Senate + House)* Moves
*toward* a federal wealth tax (lowers probability of “no federal wealth
tax”) *–8 to –12 percentage points* for (A)
*Senate Democrats formally adopt a filibuster carve-out for tax
legislation* Moves
*toward* a federal wealth tax *–5 to –10 percentage points* for (A)
*Supreme Court accepts or decides a case explicitly upholding a federal
wealth tax* Moves *toward* a federal wealth tax *–5 to –10 percentage
points* for (A)
*California Prop 40 passes in Nov 2026* Moves *toward* a state wealth tax
(lowers probability of “no state wealth tax”) *–10 to –15 percentage points*
for (B)
*California Supreme Court upholds Prop 40 and allows collection before Oct
2029* Moves strongly *toward* a state wealth tax *–10 to –20 percentage
points* for (B)
*Oregon 2028 initiative qualifies for the ballot* Modest move *toward* a
state wealth tax *–3 to –5 percentage points* for (B)
*Oregon 2028 initiative passes* Strong move *toward* a state wealth tax *–8
to –12 percentage points* for (B)
*A state legislature (e.g. Rhode Island, Minnesota, New York) enacts a
wealth tax* Strong move *toward* a state wealth tax *–10 to –15 percentage
points* for (B)
*Federal wealth-tax bill receives a full Senate vote (even if it fails)* Small
move *toward* a federal wealth tax (signals salience) *–2 to –5 percentage
points* for (A)
*US fiscal crisis / bond-market pressure forces a revenue package that
excludes wealth taxes* Moves *toward* “no wealth tax” (confirms wealth
taxes are not the chosen instrument) *+3 to +5 percentage points* for (A)
and (B)
------------------------------
FINAL SUMMARY
Question Point estimate 90% range Confidence Main reason Biggest risk Most
important update trigger
*No federal wealth tax by 31 Oct 2029* *97%* *93–99%* *High* Conjunctive
chain is formidable; no federal wealth tax has ever passed; bills remain in
committee. 2028 Democratic sweep + filibuster reform + judicial
validation. 2028
election outcome.
*No wealth tax in any US state by 31 Oct 2029* *87%* *78–94%*
*Moderate* California
Prop 40 is trailing and faces legal challenges; Oregon is at an early
stage; historical base rate is zero. Prop 40 passes narrowly and is upheld
quickly. California Prop 40 election result (Nov 2026).
*Joint: no wealth tax anywhere* *~84%* *75–92%* *Moderate* Both pathways
face high institutional and legal hurdles. A political wave that
simultaneously clears federal and state bottlenecks. 2028 election + Prop
40 result.
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