[ExI] USA Wealth Tax Forecast

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of BillK via extropy-chat
…

>…Once you understand why I make those bets…

 spike

_______________________________________________

 

 

I asked DeepSeek v4.1 to act as a Forecaster on these bets.

Spike is correct with high probability.

Don't bet against this forecast!

 

Complete Report below.

BillK

 

 

 

DeepSeek v4.1 DeepThink

  _____  

FINAL SUMMARY… etc

 

 

This is cool BillK!  It gives me an idea, a possibly profitable one.

 

I can set up a new PredictIt account, and bet exactly as Grok (or any other AI) suggests.  Hey, set up several, see which AI is best at betting.  Put a small amount of money into each of their accounts, 100 bucks, small enough that one’s bride will not complain, then have an AI betting contest, with me as one of the contestants.

 

Regarding the California wealth tax, some have argued that Prop 40 contains a poison pill: it is retroactive.  It bills a prole based on his net worth on 1 Jan 2026, which falls against the principle of ex post facto.  They argued over it at the time, suggesting a second proposition to go on the ballot making the date of net worth 1 Jan 2027.  Sooo…  what happens if both pass.  Answer: both are tossed out.

 

As it is, even if it passes, which I am betting against, it will be in court probably for several years, after which it goes to the state legislature to craft the actual law, work out the gritty details, if it is found to be legal (which I doubt.)  In the meantime, California voters will get a demonstration why a billionaire tax is a bad idea: the billionaires leave.  Surprise!  Now all that income tax they used to generate along with the income taxes from all proles working the startups has fled to Texas, Florida, Nevada, places which are more business friendly, and California has budget problems so profound, we long for the days before this absurd Prop40 scheme was hatched.  

 

The good part of that scenario is that it inoculates the federal government from trying the same thing.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20261031/207b3b8d/attachment-0001.htm>