[ExI] I hate to say it but, I agree with Trump

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] I hate to say it but, I agree with Trump

 

On Wed, Sep 2, 2026 at 2:13 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

 

>>…Apparently the current POTUS likes to "troll" Iranians too…John K Clark

 

>The long term result is that a known vulnerability, the Strait of Hormuz, is having oil pipelines built around it as fast as the neighboring countries can throw them under the ground. 

 

>…I asked your favorite AI Grok the following question: 

 

>…ME: Because of Trump's war with Iran the Strait of Hormuz is closed so some of the countries in the area are building oil pipelines, is it feasible that a pipeline could replace all the shipping that once went through that Strait, and if so how long would it take to build it?  John K Clark

 

 

>…Grok: " No, pipelines cannot fully replace the ~20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products that normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, and even substantial expansions would leave a large residual volume dependent on the waterway (or other workarounds) for years…

 

I agree with Grok for most of this, however the commentary is self-contradictory.  I agree building pipelines to replace shipping will take years.  But of course most things take years to build.  That doesn’t make it impossible or impractical.  It just takes a while.  We can deal with it in the meantime.

 

We have known for decades that there are threats from Iran which are long term.  We have known that eventually these pipelines will need to be built, for surface ships are always vulnerable, and that strait can be blockaded from either side.  It has long been clear that having sufficiently shielded (underground) pipelines to carry oil products from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan, to the Mediterranean Sea is an infrastructure which is worth building.  

 

Iran had the ability to fire on oil shipping shipping thru the strait that whole time.  I see no indications it will stop having that ability any time soon.  Conclusion: alternative means must be built.

 

If those pipes take twenty years to build, there is every reason to think it is a good investment.  Iran attacked the USA in 1979, nearly 47 years ago.  The two countries have been at war ever since, even though most of that time there were no active hostilities.  We have known that whole time that Iran could start blasting away at oil tankers going thru the strait, and that pipes capable of carrying the entire load would need to be built, eventually.  Low oil prices prevented it from happening.  Now… they are being built.

 

John, do feel free to Grok that commentary.  Don’t rephrase it however.  Cut and paste it.

 

spike

 

 

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