[ExI] roaring twenties

[Ben Zaiboc]

On 09/09/2026 18:50, spike wrote:
> As a veteran political betting fan, I have some possibly profitable advice
> for my young friends on ExI.  Most of the profit in political betting is
> made early in the cycle, such as now, for the 2028 election cycle.  By the
> time the mainstream parties have their conventions, you might as well sell
> your remaining shares, for most of the profit has already been made or lost
> by then.  Ben, our friends in Britain can play at this too, in fact you have
> an advantage: the BBC is the best source for US political news.  It is fair
> and balanced, to borrow a phrase.
>
> Three bets I consider promising: Rep. Cortez for POTUS, Rep. Cortez for
> POTUS nomination, former Senator Sanders nomination for VP.  Sounds crazy,
> ja?  No, not really considering today's events.  Read on please.
>
> I had to make a run up to Berkeley this morning.  The talk radio was all
> about Jacob Coxon, Anthropic researcher, who quit over the dangers of AI:
>
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/technology/4718202/anthropic-resea
> rcher-quits-fear-artificial-intelligence/
>
> OK then.  We now hear chat radio spending half an hour talking about all the
> stuff we have been discussing here for twenty years or more: the existential
> risk of AI, all while using the term singularity without explanation of what
> it is (assuming the radio audience knows.)  
>
> The reason I think Rep Cortez is a profitable bet is that she is openly
> hostile to AI, as is former Sen. Sanders.
>
> The most fundamental principle of advertising: sex sells but death sells
> better.  A Cortez/Sanders ticket covers both bases: Sanders is a handsome
> hunk of beef, and if one were married to Rep. Cortez, one would pray
> constantly for the sweet release of death.
>
> Furthermore... in two years, we will likely be hearing every day reasons to
> fear AI.
>
> Death sells.  The early price of a Cortez/Sanders ticket will allow a prole
> to take a profit and get out before the convention, ideally before AI kills
> everybody.


spike, I have no idea what you're talking about. How can you win a  bet on something before the something is known?
-- 
Ben