[ExI] roaring twenties

[spike at rainier66.com]

-----Original Message-----
From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Ben
Zaiboc via extropy-chat
...
>>... Death sells.  The early price of a Cortez/Sanders ticket will allow a 
> prole to take a profit and get out before the convention, ideally 
> before AI kills everybody.


>...spike, I have no idea what you're talking about. How can you win a  bet
on something before the something is known?
--
Ben

_______________________________________________


Ben, one can ONLY bet on something before the something is known.  Once it
is known, it is time to pay up, not time to bet.

What I meant was to pick your favorite ideas futures site, such as
PredictIt:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/President?=&dateFrom=2026-09-09&dateTo=2
026-09-09&page=3

and look for bets you think disagree with your outlook.  Regarding my notion
of Rep. Cortez for POTUS, her shares are at 63 cents that she will run.  I
consider this overpriced, but not enough overpriced to compel me to buy a
NOT at 32 cents.

Let's look further:

Sanders, OK no one has proposed that one, but if he shows up at 1 cent, I
will put up a buck for 100 shares, assuming it is for VP.  It is OK to have
a crazy old weirdo in the office of VP, because it doesn't have any actual
responsibilities that anyone has ever been able to determine.

I like this particular site because it is styled after our own Robin
Hanson's IdeasFutures (which still existed until recently (can't find it
now.))

You can also do parimutuel style betting if you prefer to have odds stated
that way, such as Kalshi:

https://kalshi.com/category/politics

Or Polymarket:

https://polymarket.com/politics

I have tried both of those two but like PredictIt mostly.

Poly has more stuff in it, such as Keir Starmer will announce a ban on
children under 16 accessing social media:

https://polymarket.com/event/uk-social-media-ban-in-effect-by-20260616193018
418

Indeed?  A prime minister can do that?  Does not the British parliament
decide that kinda thing?  Or the king?

spike