[ExI] Was I Right?

[spike at rainier66.com]

On Thu, Sep 24, 2026 at 12:57 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

>…At the beginning of this year I said 2025 would be the last normal year. Was I right? It's too early to say for sure 

John K Clark    

 

 

 

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Stefano Ticozzi via extropy-chat
Subject: Re: [ExI] Was I Right?

 

>…Yes, I agree that it's too early to say for sure, but 2026 has been quite normal so far: same old problems, new bold announcements.

 

I'm afraid you're probably gonna loose your bet ;)

 

ciao

stefano ticozzi

 

 

 

John cannot lose his bet because the wording of the proposed wager is insufficiently precise to create an unambiguous win/lose result.  All bets on the future must be made in such a way as to have a stark contrast between win and lose.  The betting markets adjudicate sometimes, but ideally a bet is worded completely unambiguously.  

 

Challenge: find a way to state John’s conjecture in such a way that no one can reasonably argue the result as of 31 Dec 2026.  No vague terms, no maybe, no anecdotes.  Clearly defined metrics only please.  I have failed so far, even given a lot of experience in how futures betting contracts are worded.  If anyone succeeds, let’s set up a play money betting pool, with respectars as the currency. 

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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