[ExI] Was I Right?

[Stefano Ticozzi]

I realize this is far from an objective metric, but I would simply rely on
the judgment of the members of this mailing list: by Sunday, January 3,
2027, anyone who wishes to do so can express their views on whether the
year 2026 was "normal" or not, using the year 2025—which is considered
normal—as a benchmark.
ciao
stefano

On Thu, Sep 24, 2026 at 5:42 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

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> On Thu, Sep 24, 2026 at 12:57 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
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> *>…At the beginning of this year I said 2025 would be the last normal
> year. Was I right? It's too early to say for sure *
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> *John K Clark    *
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> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *Stefano Ticozzi via extropy-chat
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] Was I Right?
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> >…Yes, I agree that it's too early to say for sure, but 2026 has been
> quite normal so far: same old problems, new bold announcements.
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> I'm afraid you're probably gonna loose your bet ;)
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> ciao
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> stefano ticozzi
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> John cannot lose his bet because the wording of the proposed wager is
> insufficiently precise to create an unambiguous win/lose result.  All bets
> on the future must be made in such a way as to have a stark contrast
> between win and lose.  The betting markets adjudicate sometimes, but
> ideally a bet is worded completely unambiguously.
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> Challenge: find a way to state John’s conjecture in such a way that no one
> can reasonably argue the result as of 31 Dec 2026.  No vague terms, no
> maybe, no anecdotes.  Clearly defined metrics only please.  I have failed
> so far, even given a lot of experience in how futures betting contracts are
> worded.  If anyone succeeds, let’s set up a play money betting pool, with
> respectars as the currency.
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> spike
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