[Paleopsych] Gaming the power grid
Werbos, Dr. Paul J.
paul.werbos at verizon.net
Mon Aug 16 21:41:24 UTC 2004
Rooftop PVs are nice, but best solar thermal is cheaper and more efficient.
More important, rooftops are a drop in the bucket.
The one really serious and urgent energy crisis in the US is the crisis
of electricity regulation so crazy that we dramatically overuse natural gas
as a fuel, distorting markets worldwide. Even modest reforms
have gotten nowhere based on folks in Congress who have said
"First things first. First MUST come controversial corporate welfare
(pork for my buddies, either earmarks or tax breaks). And if we DO get that
well, next year more of the same will come first..."
But the world oil situation is coming to a head fast. Decisions within the
next 5 years will
be decisive, in terms of our ability to avert global catastrophe 20 years
(Those poor folks who think TODAY'S problems with the Middle East are large...)
IF Bush were brave enough to dump Cheney AND Halliburton, and bring on
a promise to really clean house and get back to what the US and the world
well... there might be some hope by that route... But I have to admit,
putting it all together,
it's my personal judgment right now that the chances of nonextinction would
definitely be a lot greater
if we all picked Kerry (f Bush-Cheney is the alternative).
The present grid, and the modest reforms now before Congress, wouldn't do
give the US the kind of "spinning reserve" backups that made the big
blackouts in France
and Italy last so much less time than the big one in the US Northeast.
reserves is just one aspect of "intelligent" (and more rationally
regulated) power grids,
and... as you say, critical to getting full value from intermittent
To put it another way... a major barrier to mega-use of stuff like solar
thermal power is
the low VALUE (and payment) per kwh of intermittent power today. More
(including better and more use of spinning reserves) would raise that
what utilities can RATIONALLY pay to intermitted power generators... and
increase the potential market for much larger-scale renewables.
By the way... "intelligent grids" are a major official priority of DOE.
They will tell you
it's $80 million/year. But IEEE-USA people tell me more than half of that
Ronald Reagan's superconductor program, recycled and relabelled.
(Since current projections are that such wires will cost ten times present
capability, and we can't even afford simple wires these days, one may question
the relevance to what I just discussed...) Lots more is pork. They estimate
$2 million for the actual grid research in FY03, about half or a third of what
NSF put in. There are some unmet opportunities as it happens... a polite way
of saying we are sitting down marking time as the flood waters rise...
Best of luck to us all...
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