[Paleopsych] the global pulse - "tonalities" that shape global events.
shovland at mindspring.com
Sun Oct 10 05:06:03 UTC 2004
I take a lot of comfort in realizing that babies who are being
born today will have a chance to die in Iraq.
From: Lynn D. Johnson, Ph.D. [SMTP:ljohnson at solution-consulting.com]
Sent: Saturday, October 09, 2004 9:40 PM
To: The new improved paleopsych list
Subject: Re: [Paleopsych] the global pulse - "tonalities" that shape global events.
Those of us who served in the military when we were young knew very well
that 'freedom is not free' as we used to say. The moms I know understand
this very well, and it is disrespectful and even narcissistic to say
they don't (as if the speaker is somehow wiser).
Iraq may or may not turn out to be the right war for the right outcome,
but to think that we can be free without spilling blood is utterly
irrational. I put my life on the line, and if my children want to do the
same, I will support them. Safety is relative; we are in a war with
islamofacisim that may last for generations, as our war with communism
did. both systems wished to deprive us of freedom, and both must be
successfully defeated over many years if we are to remain free.
Steve Hovland wrote:
>If there is such as thing as "Security Moms," most of them probably don't understand that
>some of their children will have to die to keep us "safe."
>From: K.E. [SMTP:guavaberry at earthlink.net]
>Sent: Saturday, October 09, 2004 11:14 AM
>Subject: [Paleopsych] the global pulse - "tonalities" that shape global events.
> 'Google With Judgment'
> By David Ignatius
> Imagine for a moment that you could study the ebb and flow of
>public discussion about American politics as if it were a computer
>graphic. What would this database of "aggregated thought" tell you
>about the presidential campaign debates?
> It happens that a former Republican campaign strategist named Charles
>M. McLean has created just such a database. His consulting company,
>Denver Research Group Inc., monitors more than 7,000 sources on a
>constant, real-time basis -- giving him a window on what he estimates
>is about 80 percent of all original political content around the world.
>Using a combination of computer algorithms and human analysis, he sifts
>this mass of information to discern the "tonalities" that shape global
>events. This approach has identified key political trends one to two
>weeks before those changes appear in traditional poll numbers, he says.
> And what does McLean's giant Wurlitzer of information tell him about
>the debates? Like the conventional pollsters, he rated last Thursday
>night as a giant victory for John Kerry. The difference is that
>McLean's methodology allowed him to see this shift coming. His
>"tonality" measure for Kerry began to move up sharply just after Kerry
>gave a speech Sept. 20, outlining a four-point plan on Iraq. When Kerry
>performed well Thursday night, he was pushing on an open door.
> What's driving this election, argues McLean, is something he calls
>the "unease factor." He estimates that more than 20 percent of the
>electorate is worried about America's security in the world -- and is
>looking for reassurance. It's a large group -- much bigger than the
>usual measure of undecided swing voters because it includes a lot of
>Bush supporters who had been comforted by the Republican candidate's
>certitude about Iraq and the war on terrorism.
> Kerry couldn't reassure these uneasy voters until he had an
>alternative explanation of what the United States should do in Iraq.
>His "tonality," by McLean's measure, had collapsed in early August
>after the ad campaign by Swift Boat Veterans for Truth challenged his
>trump card of Vietnam service. It didn't recover until his Iraq speech,
>which reassured voters that Kerry had an alternative "plan" for the
>war, as he kept repeating Thursday night. The poll numbers didn't show
>the swing before the debate, but McLean's indicators did.
> "The uneasy voters want to hear how it's all going to be okay,"
>McLean explains. "They've been waiting for something to grab hold of
>with Kerry. Bush's greatest strength was his sense of assurance,
>comfort, confidence -- but his performance Thursday took all three
>away. All Kerry had to do was stand there with a catcher's mitt."
> I've been exchanging e-mails with McLean for the past year, pestering
>him to let me write about his methodology. Since he's selling the
>system to various Fortune 500 corporations, he's wary about sharing too
>many details. And I should note, as a caveat, that he's shared
>information this year with the Kerry campaign.
> McLean says he's applying to politics something he learned doing
>commercial research: By the time a new product shows up in sales data,
>it's too late for another company to compete effectively. An aggressive
>competitor must analyze the technical and market environment and then
>develop products for that space. It's the same in politics, McLean
>says: By the time you see a candidate's weakness in poll numbers, it
>may be too late to fix it.
> McLean has applied his intriguing approach to the Middle East,
>helping build an organization called Access/Middle East, which
>automatically monitors and translates more than 400 sources covering
>Israel and the Arab world. This database also includes information from
>more than 50 think tanks.
> So what does McLean's survey of "aggregated thought" in the Islamic
>world tell him about the possibility of terrorist attacks? The
>likelihood of an attack on U.S. soil now stands at 46 percent, the
>highest level since Sept. 11, 2001. But the risk is even higher, at 54
>percent, in the six months after the November presidential election.
>And for better or worse, McLean sees a high likelihood (68 percent)
>that radical Islamists will make a political push in Iraq -- perhaps
>focusing on winning next January's elections.
> McLean describes his system as "Google with judgment." To me, it
>sounds almost like an electronic "marketplace of ideas" that allows you
>to track the direction and momentum of what people are thinking, 24
>hours a day. If the system works as well as he says, it could
>eventually change the way people analyze politics, and a lot of other
>things as well.
> davidignatius at washpost.com
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