[Paleopsych] economic and behavior

Werbos, Dr. Paul J. paul.werbos at verizon.net
Tue Sep 14 21:44:27 UTC 2004

At 11:43 AM 9/14/2004 -0700, Michael Christopher wrote:

> >>It is as if there were a big asteroid due to hit
>the earth on 20 years and make a lot of folks
>extinct... and we have 5 years in which known
>technology will be able to make a course correction.
>The US election and early Administration choices of
>the next year will control most of that 5 years.<<
>--You're assuming US politics controls consumer
>behavior, and that other nations won't fill the gap
>and produce better technology.

Funny you should say that.

I have been working very hard to communicate with other nations
about these issues, and I do think we should work with them as much as we can.

But, to begin with, the US is a very big part of the WORLD gasoline market.
the US and China between them seem to predict global oil demand pretty well.
And then you can go to the EC.

I don't see a huge amount of motion in the EC right now. The combination of
vested interests and political correctness/delusion is at least as 
problematic there
as here, in every probe I have tried. I am not surprised that the Saarland 
voted in violent reaction the other day, given what they have been asked to 
put up with.

China ought to be better in some ways. Certainly they have batteries for 
electric and hybrid cars right now
that beat the rest of the world. They have strong mileage standards and 
encourage hybrids.
That's something. But I don't see anything on alternatives fuels. Lately, 
there is a commitment to cut
back on ALL capital investment EXCEPT nuclear, which is utterly weird. 
(People tell me
that SAFE fission costs more than clean coal, and China has more 
comparative advantage with clean --
gasified -- coal. Maybe they haven't thought through what a Chernobyl style 
of nuclear development might do
to their internal future?)

There are places where more is happening, like Brazil... but only if we are 
flexible enough to learn from those
nations can we make a big dent in the global situation. And we need to 
learn soon...

>  US consumers have shown
>that they are perfectly willing to buy foreign-made
>products if they are superior and more economical. As
>gas prices go up, the market will change, regardless
>of who is responsible for innovation. If the US
>refuses to innovate, it will just lose its share of
>the future market.
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