[Paleopsych] NYTBR: (Posner) 'Catastrophe': Apocalypse When?
Lynn D. Johnson, Ph.D.
ljohnson at solution-consulting.com
Mon Jan 3 02:16:49 UTC 2005
RE: Catastrophes, have you read State of Fear by Crichton? I know, it
has all the typical weaknesses of a Crichton novel, but he effectively
discounts global warming as a pseudo-fact being pushed by politics and
not science. So Posner's argument about warming seems to be based on
this pseudo-science. Crichton demolishes the Kyoto treaty using actual
peer-reviewed citations in his novel.
The whole idea of putting lots of effort into avoiding an event that
will not happen is delicious coming from an attorney/judge, since
lawyers are twisting science (silicone breast implants cause no
problems; Cerebral palsy is not caused by OBs not doing caesarians) and
creating imaginary risks (Vioxx is a perfectly good drug when taken with
More to the point, can we actually estimate probabilities? Five day
weather predictions are a joke -- the local weather people have been
predicting huge snowstorms that never materialized -- and so how can we
predict whether a particle accelerator can produce a mini-black hole?
Computer modeling is generally how we get such predictions, and such
modeling has been 'way off, at least the ones I have seen.
Premise Checker wrote:
> 'Catastrophe': Apocalypse When?
> New York Times Book Review, 5.1.2
> By PETER SINGER
> Risk and Response.
> By Richard A. Posner.
> 322 pp. Oxford University Press. $28.
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