[extropy-chat] Who Anticipated Internet Exploding in 90s?

[Robin Hanson]

I wrote:
 > I just read someone who said:
 > "no one anticipated the explosive diffusion of the Internet
 > during the 1990s"
 > and I figured that this can't be right - surely someone must
 > have had the dumb luck to predict such a thing before 1990.
 > Can anyone point to a quote?

On 12/3/2003 Harvey Newstrom responded:
>I suggest reading through "A Brief History of the Internet" at
><http://www.isoc.org/internet/history/brief.shtml>.  It has references to
>all the milestones in Internet creation, including white papers,
>conferences, etc.

That is a history of who did what when, not of who predicted what when.

Charlie Stross responded:
>Surely "True Names" by Vernor Vinge counts? He had the net as a ubiquitous 
>service, certainly, and that was published in 1980. And I'm pretty certain 
>it was explicitly the internet -- or an n'th generation descendant -- that 
>he was talking about. Caveat: fictional source, rather than academic paper.

Science fiction authors typically resist the interpretation that just 
because they wrote a novel describing a hypothetical future, than they were 
seriously predicting that future would happen within fifteen years.

Giu1i0 Pri5c0 responded:
>I did. In 1990 I was playing with the idea to start a net access business
>for individual end users, and even found someone who was maybe willing to
>invest some money. Then I let them talking me out of the idea, "this is too
>crazy, there will never be a market for this". Now when I wish to do some
>sweet daydreaming I think of what I would do with all the money that I would
>have now if I had followed my idea to the end.

OK, but did you publish your prediction in any way, such as in a mailing 
list archive?

>Two lessons here: 1 - believe in your ideas - 2 - get your ass off the
>armchair and do it.

This first lesson seems overblown.  Presumably all the people who disagreed
with you at the time believed in their ideas as well.  They were wrong and
you were right.  On average how is this evidence that everyone should be
more confident?



Robin Hanson  rhanson at gmu.edu  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323