[extropy-chat] Futures idea game (was Nano-assembler feasibility - politics)

[Harvey Newstrom]

On Sunday, April 4, 2004, at 01:45 pm, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:

> No, you are misreading the bet.  The bet pays x cents where the feynman
> prize is claimed on the year 2000 + x, so the fact that the bet is at
> 21-25% means that market beleives the prize will be claimed between
> 2021-2025.

OK, I may be misreading that.  I sorted bets by "due date" and looked 
at the "due date" to see when the claim was supposed to have happened.  
I didn't realize that bets could still be "won" after the due date had 
passed.

However, there are still many interesting examples of wrong predictions 
that had high percentages of support in their day:
100%: Original Star Wars rereleased in theatres 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=SW1b>
100%: MiniDisks will outsell CDs 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=MdCd>
100%:  Terrorists have nuclear weapons 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Terr>
100%: Hillary Clinton runs for president 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=HClOff>
100%: Non-Intel PCs dominate market 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NIPC>
90%: Colin Powell will run for President 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=CPfP>
90%: Unix irrelevent <http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=UNIX>
85%: Mac clone sales outnumber Mac sales 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=MacC>
80%: Netscape wins browser war 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NSWN>
80%: Steve Jobs leaves Apple 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NoJobs>
80%: Linda Tripp goes to jail 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=TRIPP>
80%: US Balanced Budget 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=BB2002>
80%: US Balanced Budget with Republican President 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=BBRP>
80%: Clintons divorce 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Bilary>
80%: Hemp legalized in 25% of states 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=He25>
70%: Same-sex marriages legal in most US states 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=SSma>
60%: Communist Chinese government overthrown 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=DENG>
60%: Newt Gingrich runs for president 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=NG2K>
50%: Automated sports umpire instead of human 
<http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=eUmp>

--
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, CISA, CISM, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
Certified IS Security Pro, Certified IS Auditor, Certified InfoSec 
Manager,
NSA Certified Assessor, IBM Certified Consultant, SANS Certified GIAC
<HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>