[extropy-chat] Sub-replacement fertility spreading rapidly
pharos at gmail.com
Wed Aug 4 07:36:46 UTC 2004
Four Surprises in Global Demography
By Nicholas Eberstadt July 2004
(1) the rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility,
(2) the emergence of unnatural gender imbalances among the very young,
(3) sustained increases in death rates
(4) American "demographic exceptionalism".
"Sub-replacement fertility is clearly no longer mainly a
developed-nation phenomenon. If the Census Bureau's projections are
roughly accurate, just about half the world's population lives in
sub-replacement countries or territories.
Apart from Mongolia, according to the Census Bureau, all of East Asia is
sub-replacement, as are Thailand and Burma in Southeast Asia, Kazakhstan
and Sri Lanka in South-Central Asia, many Caribbean societies, and most
South American countries.
Perhaps the biggest surprise, given received notions about the
Arab/Muslim expanse, is the recent spread of sub- replacement fertility
to parts of the Arab and the Muslim world."
Much food for thought in this article about the latest Census Bureau
figures. Looks like the US just has to continue as normal and wait for
the rest of the world to dwindle away over the next 50 years.
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