[extropy-chat] Sub-replacement fertility spreading rapidly

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Wed Aug 4 07:36:46 UTC 2004


Four Surprises in Global Demography
By Nicholas Eberstadt     July 2004

(1) the rapid spread of sub-replacement fertility,
(2) the emergence of unnatural gender imbalances among the very young, 
(3) sustained increases in death rates
(4) American "demographic exceptionalism".

"Sub-replacement fertility is clearly no longer mainly a 
developed-nation phenomenon. If the Census Bureau's projections are 
roughly accurate, just about half the world's population lives in 
sub-replacement countries or territories.
Apart from Mongolia, according to the Census Bureau, all of East Asia is 
sub-replacement, as are Thailand and Burma in Southeast Asia, Kazakhstan 
and Sri Lanka in South-Central Asia, many Caribbean societies, and most 
South American countries.
Perhaps the biggest surprise, given received notions about the 
Arab/Muslim expanse, is the recent spread of sub- replacement fertility 
to parts of the Arab and the Muslim world."

Much food for thought in this article about the latest Census Bureau 
figures. Looks like the US just has to continue as normal and wait for 
the rest of the world to dwindle away over the next 50 years.


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