[extropy-chat] Alleged Climate Collapse
mlorrey at yahoo.com
Mon Feb 23 13:03:22 UTC 2004
--- Max M <maxm at mail.tele.dk> wrote:
> Spike wrote:
> >>Olga Bourlin
> >>I know there are contrarians on this list regarding this topic. If
> >>have thoughts from "counterpoint" side, please post...Olga
> > Olga, I read over these predictions and considered them
> > too silly to respond. The weather on this big old planet
> > simply does not change quickly, nothing does. I find the
> > evidence lacking.
> Then you have not studied the evidence closely enough Spike.
> Drillings in the arctic ice in Greenland has shown quite certainly
> that there has been very aprubt climate changes. Corresponding with
> ice ages.
> This is not new data, but something I have been aware of for at least
> 10 years.
This is not in dispute. However:
a) there has not been any collapse of Greenland or Antarctic Ice caps
in millions of years, in which time the Earth has seen far more severe
fluctuations than the 1 degree change we've seen over the past century
or the 2-6 degree change being predicted for this century (2 degrees
being more likely). Without ice cap collapse, there will be no rise in
sea levels. While there are a few current examples of "sea level rise",
these are, in areas of the real oceans, a matter of tectonic settling
and subsidence, and in the Caspian Basin in particular, increased
rainfall in central asia.
b) It has yet to be proven that CO2 is a causative agent of anything.
The IPCC draft report acknowledges this, even though the final version
reaches the opposite conclusion (i.e. after the politicians got their
hands on it). Evidence actually tends to show that CO2 is a lagging
indicator, leading to the logical conclusion that the cause lies
elsewhere. For example, late 19th century data of global temperatures
and coal production and consumption shows that temperatures began
rising BEFORE coal production and consumption rose.
c) CO2 proponents' climate models have consistently been highly
inaccurate at predicting *current day* climate based on historical
data, overestimating warming by a factor of 2-10. When it gets down to
brass tacks, MOST warming is a result of Malenkovich Cycles in Earth
orbital dynamics, the rest, a warming of the arctic, is a result of
northern diesel burning imposing soot on the arctic environment.
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- Mike Lorrey
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