[extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

David deimtee at optusnet.com.au
Mon Apr 25 12:22:19 UTC 2005

Samantha Atkins wrote:
> On Apr 24, 2005, at 10:19 PM, Hal Finney wrote:
>> And why don't the futures markets reflect this phenomenon?  You can buy
>> or sell oil right now for December 2010 delivery for less than $50/bbl.
>> If close study of the situation provides strong evidence that the oil
>> will be worth many times that, speculators stand to make enormous profits
>> on the price rise.  Yet no one is bidding the price up, and from what I
>> have read even Peak Oil believers generally are not putting their money
>> where their mouths are.
> Because much of the world is still in denial as to the actual 
> situation.  Soon denial will no longer be an option.  It will not be 
> pretty.   It will be worse because its reality was denied for far too 
> long.   Humans have a near endless ability to ignore unpleasant news.   
> Look at the tech bubble as a case in point.
> Rationally we should be building out alternative energy options 
> including nuclear on even the reasoned suspicion of Peak Oil.  Alas, 
> rationality is difficult to come by in this species.
> - samantha

Being in denial would only apply to those who deny the peak oil theory.
It doesn't explain why even the people who are pushing the theory
are acting as if they don't believe in it.
Personally, I think that within the oil industry Thomas Gold's theories
on primordial hydrocarbons are given a lot more creedence than is
publicly admitted. Claiming that fuels are running out, or not
arguing when greenies claim this, help to condition people to
expect higher energy prices (and future price rises).

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