[extropy-chat] Debate on Peak Oil

Samantha Atkins sjatkins at mac.com
Tue Apr 26 08:37:55 UTC 2005

On Apr 25, 2005, at 5:22 AM, David wrote:

> Samantha Atkins wrote:
>> On Apr 24, 2005, at 10:19 PM, Hal Finney wrote:
>>> And why don't the futures markets reflect this phenomenon?  You can 
>>> buy
>>> or sell oil right now for December 2010 delivery for less than 
>>> $50/bbl.
>>> If close study of the situation provides strong evidence that the oil
>>> will be worth many times that, speculators stand to make enormous 
>>> profits
>>> on the price rise.  Yet no one is bidding the price up, and from 
>>> what I
>>> have read even Peak Oil believers generally are not putting their 
>>> money
>>> where their mouths are.
>> Because much of the world is still in denial as to the actual 
>> situation.  Soon denial will no longer be an option.  It will not be 
>> pretty.   It will be worse because its reality was denied for far too 
>> long.   Humans have a near endless ability to ignore unpleasant news. 
>>   Look at the tech bubble as a case in point.
>> Rationally we should be building out alternative energy options 
>> including nuclear on even the reasoned suspicion of Peak Oil.  Alas, 
>> rationality is difficult to come by in this species.
>> - samantha
> Being in denial would only apply to those who deny the peak oil theory.
> It doesn't explain why even the people who are pushing the theory
> are acting as if they don't believe in it.

Market prices are set in large part on perceptions.  As long as the 
majority of players believe Peak Oil is not here yet  and what things 
that can be done to postpone that realization are still successful 
there would be little point in bidding the price up more than can 
currently be sustained.   This is not a perfect market so the market is 
not an accurate measure for what is true or likely true re Peak Oil.

> Personally, I think that within the oil industry Thomas Gold's theories
> on primordial hydrocarbons are given a lot more creedence than is
> publicly admitted. Claiming that fuels are running out, or not
> arguing when greenies claim this, help to condition people to
> expect higher energy prices (and future price rises).

Thomas Gold's theories have no validation that I am aware of.  So, 
unless you have some there seems to be no reasonable relief in that 

- samantha

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