[extropy-chat] Impeachment of President Bush What odds am I offered?

[Hal Finney]

Brett writes:
> If I was to say that I have US$1000 of real money that says that President
> George W Bush will be impeached what odds would serious minded people
> like to offer me I wonder?

There is a related claim at the FX game,
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=BuImp

: Claim BuImp - Bush impeached or resigns
:
: This claim will be true if a majority of the US house votes to impeach
: George Bush--or Bush resigns from office. It may be judged when another
: US president is inaugurated or George Bush out of office.
:
: Note: it is not necessary for the Senate to convict Bush for this claim
: to be true.

Since its creation in September, the claim has traded very stably at
about 20, implying a roughly 20% chance of coming true.  This counts
both resignation and impeachment, so the odds of just impeachment would
be somewhat lower, but I don't know how much.

So I'd be willing to offer 4 to 1 odds against, and feel like I had a
modest profit expectation.  And yes, I'd be willing to cover the
$1000 bet (putting up my $4000 against that).

Hal