[extropy-chat] Timescale to Singularity

Mike Lorrey mlorrey at yahoo.com
Fri Jun 17 15:09:37 UTC 2005



--- Marc Geddes <marc_geddes at yahoo.co.nz> wrote:

> >A noble sentiment, but I'm not sure 2030 is realistic; my guess, for
> >what it's worth, is that mid to late 21st century is more plausible
> >than early. Only time will tell, of course, but remember it's a
> >marathon, not a sprint: if 2030 comes around and the world's
> problems
> >are still with us, that does not necessarily mean we have failed to
> >solve them - only that we have not done so _yet_.
> >
> >- Russell
>  
> For a variety of reasons I think 2030 is a very conservative,
> realistic and achieveable target for Singularity.

This is highly dependent upon greater market achievements. The TCRA of
1998 surely delayed the singularity by at least 5 to possibly 8 or more
years, simply because we should all be working off of fiber optic
internet connections rather than cable or DSL or T1. A factor of 100
difference in bandwidth is 8 Moore generations in bandwidth
development.

Legislation along with luddite terrorism will be the primary brake on
progress in the coming decades and will determine when the Singularity
arrives, if it does in time to continue to beat the resource depletion
curve with utilization efficiency gains. When governments put their
survival ahead of technological progress, do not expect progress to
happen.

>  
> I base my target date on comments made by leading AI researchers such
> as Wilson, Yudkowsky and Goertzel (who all stated on various
> messageboards that the problem of general intelligence was now mostly
> solved and it is only the Friendliness problem that now awaits
> solution.  Goertzel was also sure that his Novamente project could be
> coded in only 30 000 lines of a high level language, which is only a
> modest size).  Aside from that there is all the evidence for
> accelerating progress in info-tech, summarized well in Damian
> Broderick's 'The Spike', Moore's Law etc.  There is also concrete
> evidence to support this rate of progress in the form of the
> ferocious rate at which news is coming out of the labs (for instance
> millionare Jeff Hawkins project, or the recent 'Blue Brain' project
> to simulate the brain to name just two recent impressive examples).  
> 

Oh really? Eli and Ben have AIs running on stand alone machines, do
they? If the problem is mostly solved we should be seeing something by
now.

The Blue Brain simulation is merely an advanced physiological simulator
for medical research. The idea that it will be some sort of AI brain is
a bit of a stretch.

>  
> In any event, there is also evidence that other technologies such as
> nano-technology or bio-technology should be reaching maturation by
> 2030 and the dangers posed by these technologies require AGI to
> handle saftely.  
>  
> Finally, for me personally, I'm 33 now and by 2030 I'd be 58, which
> is too old to be sure of my further survival without major advances
> in bio-tech (survival rates plummet after one turns 60).

You are looking at it from a 2000 point of view. By 2030 average life
expectancy will be in the 80's or 90's. You will still be in middle
age.

>  
> All that said, I concede that trying to predict target dates for
> things is fun but can all too easily degenerate into mental
> masturabation and pointless philosophisizing).  Rather than
> prediction, one is really *projecting* or *goal setting*

Without running and fully funding a goal oriented PAC with a set
legislative agenda and election funds, we are going to get played at
every corner by the luddites.

Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom.
It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves."
                                      -William Pitt (1759-1806) 
Blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com


		
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