[extropy-chat] Timescale to Singularity

[BillK]

On 6/17/05, Mike Lorrey wrote:
> 
> This is highly dependent upon greater market achievements. The TCRA of
> 1998 surely delayed the singularity by at least 5 to possibly 8 or more
> years, simply because we should all be working off of fiber optic
> internet connections rather than cable or DSL or T1. A factor of 100
> difference in bandwidth is 8 Moore generations in bandwidth
> development.
> 

This delay only applies to the US, of course.
In a few years time, if the Chinese brute force AI on the much more
powerful computers that will become available, then - game over.

We can hope that they have more sense, but they may well feel driven
to take the risk.
A Chinese AI would be able to spare a few cycles to beat Stuart at Go,
while as a first step helping the Chinese to make safe places for it
to live in, well distributed to avoid possible attacks. What it will
choose to do after that is anybody's guess.

BillK