[extropy-chat] Futures Past

Hal Finney hal at finney.org
Sun Oct 9 21:46:24 UTC 2005

I made my own counter-predictions to Greg's year 2000 predictions
in <http://lists.extropy.org/exi-lists/extropians.2Q99/0950.html>.
Basically I predicted that most of Greg's items would not come true even
by 2003.  Greg responded that he was "flat-out amazed" at my pessimism
in <http://lists.extropy.org/exi-lists/extropians.2Q99/0981.html>.

I think in retrospect I was a little too pessimistic, in that some
of Greg's technologies were coming into widespread use by 2003 (e.g.
flat screens).  But overall I was pretty close.  Here is how I concluded
back in 1999:

> So, what's my secret? Why is my crystal ball better than anyone else's?
> Well, I'm writing a year later than Greg was, which is pretty significant
> for events "circa 2000". But I seem to view major short-term enhancements
> as being both less likely and less predictable than other people here.
> It may seem curmudgeonly to say "no" when other people go out on a limb
> and look for breakthroughs, but that is the safer bet. There probably
> will be surprises in the next four years, but they will surprise both
> Greg and me. And they are unlikely to significantly change society in
> that time frame; there is just too much inertia.


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