[extropy-chat] Futures Past

[Greg Burch]

Hal, I had forgotten this.  In some ways, our exchange is even more telling for the sea-change my own thinking and attitudes have undergone since then than the original projections, because we were having our discussion right at the very precipice of the Bust.

Two items in the discussion hit home personally.  The first is the discussion of VR/retina painters.  I invested heavily in the company that I mentioned in the exchange you site -- Microvision.  That company has working technology that every single person who has seen it comes away from convinced that a major revolution in interface technology is just around the corner.  But that's been true for SEVEN YEARS.  They have been on the verge of de-listing for the last five years and I lost a literal fortune in my investment in the company.  It's hard not to have an experience like that and become very, very skeptical of future projections.

The other item is the deregulation and "networking" of the electrical power market.  Again, our exchange took place *right before* the implosion of Enron and others in that industry and the collapse of a dream and multple mega-fortunes.  I continue to believe there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the basic concepts behind the industry.  But the execution of those concpets ... well, the library of books that have been written about the subject continues to grow.  Again, it was a case of "breathing your own fumes" fueled by initial success running headlong into the complexity of politics and the unpredictability of the moral judgments key individuals might make.  Smoke from the bonfire of dollars going up in smoke around me in downtown Houston during 2000 and 2001 has clouded my dreams ...

GB

> -----Original Message-----
> From: extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org
> [mailto:extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org]On Behalf Of "Hal Finney"
> Sent: Sunday, October 09, 2005 4:46 PM
> To: extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> Subject: Re: [extropy-chat] Futures Past
> 
> 
> I made my own counter-predictions to Greg's year 2000 predictions
> in <http://lists.extropy.org/exi-lists/extropians.2Q99/0950.html>.
> Basically I predicted that most of Greg's items would not come true even
> by 2003.  Greg responded that he was "flat-out amazed" at my pessimism
> in <http://lists.extropy.org/exi-lists/extropians.2Q99/0981.html>.
> 
> I think in retrospect I was a little too pessimistic, in that some
> of Greg's technologies were coming into widespread use by 2003 (e.g.
> flat screens).  But overall I was pretty close.  Here is how I concluded
> back in 1999:
> 
> > So, what's my secret? Why is my crystal ball better than anyone else's?
> > Well, I'm writing a year later than Greg was, which is pretty 
> significant
> > for events "circa 2000". But I seem to view major short-term 
> enhancements
> > as being both less likely and less predictable than other people here.
> > It may seem curmudgeonly to say "no" when other people go out on a limb
> > and look for breakthroughs, but that is the safer bet. There probably
> > will be surprises in the next four years, but they will surprise both
> > Greg and me. And they are unlikely to significantly change society in
> > that time frame; there is just too much inertia.
> 
> Hal
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