[extropy-chat] Futures Past
alito at organicrobot.com
Mon Oct 10 03:24:58 UTC 2005
On Sun, 2005-10-09 at 13:23 -0400, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> On Oct 9, 2005, at 11:28 AM, Alejandro Dubrovsky wrote:
> > There is no we or us here. Those predictions were mostly made by Greg
> > Burch, a couple of people piped up with comments, and Greg took some of
> > them onboard on his write up. That is all.
> > (I wish I would have written down some predictions, and I admire Greg's
> > work ethic in actually going through with it and remembering to look
> > them up after all these years afterwards. But this is no lesson to
> > anyone else unless you remember agreeing with those that wrote them)
> No, I wasn't one of the people who agreed with these predictions. But
> most people did. You can review the archives if you don't believe me.
I did. Most people didn't say anything. Silence does not equal
consent. I can't find where you were doing some more pessimistic
predictions in that thread. I can't find where I was making more
pessimistic predictions in that thread (I can't remember what I thought,
too easy to fool myself). Neither of these mean that we agreed.
> These were not rare or odd predictions made by Greg. It was convention
> transhumanist thought.
That's my point. There isn't any conventional transhumanist thought
when it comes to timelines.
> And it was wrong. Today, there are still such
> predictions about AI and nanotech. People are still expecting the
> singularity within a decade.
Some people are, some people aren't. My feeling is that most people on
this list think this prediction will not come to pass.
> It simply won't happen. Everybody will
> think I am too pessimistic now. And then everyone will deny making
> these predictions 10 years from now. I've been through it before, and
> I'll go through it again.
But you cop out in the same way I do: where are your predictions? what
do your expected timelines look like? Most predictions are wrong, so
it's easy to be a naysayer, but technological progress has been made
since 1998 (I hope you agree), and this will continue (again, I assume
you agree with this too), so maybe you have thoughts about when certain
things will happen. Quantify your pessimism by sharing your expected
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