[extropy-chat] Futures Past

[Russell Wallace]

On 10/10/05, Alejandro Dubrovsky <alito at organicrobot.com> wrote:
>
> But you cop out in the same way I do: where are your predictions? what
> do your expected timelines look like? Most predictions are wrong, so
> it's easy to be a naysayer, but technological progress has been made
> since 1998 (I hope you agree), and this will continue (again, I assume
> you agree with this too), so maybe you have thoughts about when certain
> things will happen. Quantify your pessimism by sharing your expected
> timelines.
>

I'll bite: My estimate is that the Singularity will happen by the end of
this century, unless we fall into an existential disaster such as nanowar or
world government instead; so anything you want to do to influence the
outcome, you probably need to get it done by 2100 or not at all.

- Russell
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