[extropy-chat] Futures Past

Harvey Newstrom mail at harveynewstrom.com
Mon Oct 10 06:04:06 UTC 2005

On Oct 9, 2005, at 10:57 PM, Robin Hanson wrote:

> At 10:40 PM 10/9/2005, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>> In fact, I am not interested in SF much at all for prediction 
>> purposes.  My real interest is whether transhumanists have been 
>> better at predicting the future than mainstream predictors.
> If this is your interest there is really no practical substitute for 
> the sort of data analysis I proposed earlier today.  You need to 
> collect predictions by transhumanists and by others and look at the 
> coefficient on TRANSHUMANIST? when accuracy is the dependent variable. 
>  I know it is more fun to flame and bait, selectively recalling the 
> predictions one got right and others got wrong, and making a few new 
> predictions one hopes to selectively recall at a future date.  But for 
> a real lasting contribution on this issue, we need scholarship.

Why do you think I am asking for examples?  Why do you think Robert 
posted his early claims and compared them with actual results?  Nobody 
is disputing that we should compare our actual claims with actual 
results to see if they were any good.  I am not sure why you think 
anybody is flaming, baiting or selectively recalling earlier 
predictions.  So far, everybody seems to be having a cordial and 
accurate recall of our past.  If you have a differing memory of 
history, please describe it.  It does no good to call someone's memory 
selective without saying what the correct memory should be.  Especially 
when the person is actively requesting alternative histories.  Come on, 
and join in the fun.  I think everyone here would gladly welcome such 
an analysis as you describe.

Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>

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