[extropy-chat] Futures Past
rhanson at gmu.edu
Mon Oct 10 11:26:58 UTC 2005
At 02:04 AM 10/10/2005, Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>>>My real interest is whether transhumanists have been better at
>>>predicting the future than mainstream predictors.
>>If this is your interest there is really no practical substitute
>>for the sort of data analysis I proposed earlier today. You need
>>to collect predictions by transhumanists and by others and look at
>>the coefficient on TRANSHUMANIST? when accuracy is the dependent
>>variable. I know it is more fun to flame and bait, selectively
>>recalling the predictions one got right and others got wrong ...
>Why do you think I am asking for examples? Why do you think Robert
>posted his early claims and compared them with actual results? ...
>So far, everybody seems to be having a cordial and accurate recall
>of our past. ... Come on, and join in the fun.
I didn't mean to imply that people were not enjoying themselves, nor
that the examples being recalled could not be included in such an
analysis. I meant to call attention to the difference between such
informal conversation and the sort of systematic analysis needed.
Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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