[extropy-chat] Futures Past--time-line

giorgio gaviraghi giogavir at yahoo.it
Mon Oct 10 18:00:09 UTC 2005

here is a 2004 forecast made for an incoming book for
the records
Before analysing the progressive approach we want to
show where the possible road of achievements will
direct us by single subjects.
Such results will be included in a Master Plan and
analysed in detail in the following pages
This  preview is used as an advanced description of
the method that will be followed and will help clarify
the division in successive steps for all activities.
We can define  the phases, following Kardashev
classifications of energy compsumption , they are.
-Phase 1- a planetary type society
-Phase 2-an interplanetary type society
-Phase 3 an interstellar type society
While the drivers are:
-political, as the major and initial  condition for
other developments
-standardization a technical condition for unification
-security another condition for the general well being
-pollution, an effect of uncontrolled progress
-energy a requirement to be fulfilled in a way that
don’t create pollution or waste of resources
-education a cause to avoid poverty
-health to save and enhance our body  
-economy to eliminate poverty and promote well being
-space as our future unlimited territory
-technology as the main source of controlled progress
-terraforming the main direction of our Earth oriented
They will be analysed with most of their evolutionary
progress  and cause and effect situations in a
progressive step by step sequence spanning over three
centuries of future history.
Such mapping will allow to study the interrelations
between several drivers and to create scenarios that
may help prevent and  solve future problems before
they can cause any damage.
In this way the future will become a planned event of
sequences and the progressive steps well planned
milestones and events towards the meeting of well
defined and established goals.


KARDASHEV 1- Planetary society                        
KARDASHEV 2- interplanetary society
           Year 2020                                  
            year 2050                                 
                    year 2100
 Prepare Master plan                              
operating World federation                        New
constitution including new lifeforms
 GPA operating                                        
Regional Governments system                    and
space settlements 
 Embryo World Gov system                           
 World Constitution                                   
 Common e-currency                                all
standards unified                                 
solar system standards
 Start common language                         
standardization laws
 Set unified standards
 Unmanned military vehicles                     sat
crime control                                      
crime prevention brain technology
 Chip system operating                             
security by robots
 Crime mapping
 Universal ID system
 Sat personal tracking
 Prepare alternative technologies             apply
new technologies                             climate
 Pollution stopped                                    
pollution reversed                                    
  catastrophy prevention system
 Low cost access technology                    cycler
to Moon and Mars                            advanced
technology transportation
 Asteroid deflection technology                 manned
base in Moon and Mars                manned
 Station construction technology                space
transportation system                      migration
asteroid spaceship
 Solar system mapping                             
space infrastructural system                      
milky way mapping
 1000 esoplanets discovered                     100%
solar system mapping                      Mars
  earth like planets discovery                     
unmanned colonies
 Animation media                                      
 instruction implants                                 
 biobrain education
 Remote education                                     
universal brain
 All media online
 Games technology in education
 Population and jobs relocation                  
robotic economy
 New economic model       
 Create new 1B jobs by K1 plan
 Energy from renewable                             
wireless power transmission                      space
clean power generation
 Alternative propulsion cars
-decentralise clean energy production
 Medical injected chip                                
remote medicine                                       
  cell transplant
 Human cloning                                        
  artificial organs                                   
        rejuvenation process
 Extrawomb birth experiments                    
disease free society                                  
 suspended animation
 Remote instant diagnosis                          
genetic engineered intellianimals              
virtual immortality
 Nanolevel therapy
 Body and disease models
 Connector prototype                                 
install transnet                                      
       mag lev transportation
 PST prototype                                        
   grid system in operation                           
   Terraforming 10%
 Terraforming plans                                   
 new building types                                   
    Sahara sea construction
 Start grid construction
Multimedia center                                     
 universal portable translator                       
molecular transfer
 Petabites storage                                    
  VTOL and HST commercial planes             atomic
level chemistry
 Multimedia communicator                         
personal flying system                               
small scale production system
 Robotics multitasking                                
automated clean PTV                                
Cornucopia-molecular assembler
Nanotech manufacturing                             
molecular assembler tests

              KARDASHEV 3- Interstellar society
             Year 2200                                
                year 2200 plus             
                         Stellar federation
                       Alien rights and ethics

                         Interstellar standards

                         Interstellar protection
                          Advanced warfare system

                          Terraforming technologies

 Intelligent ET civilization                          
                interstellar travel technology
 Planetary level ecosystem                            
           artificial planet technology
 Oort cloud settlements                               
              Venus terraforming plans
 Mars terraforming 10%                                
            unmanned interstellar  colonizatrion
 Way mapping 80%
 Ringworlds technology
 Universal brain

  Intelligent android robots                          
             interstellar economy
 Intellianimals economy                               
             alien interaction
 Unmanned manufacturing economy
 Unmanned primary activities
 Star power utilization                               
                star power generation
 Interstellar power sources

 Multigeneration humans                               
          mind\body separation
 Interaction brain\web                                
                alien interaction
 Telepathy experiments                                
            mind copies in multibodies
 Earth terraforming completed                         
        stellar terraforming technology
 Space colonies network                               
            stellar colonies network
 Molecular assembler advanced                         
        mind controlled machines                   Von
Neumann machines

--- Damien Broderick <thespike at satx.rr.com> ha

> At 08:00 AM 10/10/2005 -0500, Max wrote:
> >And *ten* years ago, in Extropy #15, the Future
> Forecasts section 
> >"compared educated estimates of future
> breakthroughs by Gregory Benford, 
> >Alcor's Steve Bridge, Eric Drexler, FM-2030, Mark
> Miller, Max More, and 
> >Nick Szabo."
> >
> >I don't have the text handy on computer (but will
> eventually extract it 
> >from old floppies). Anyone have the time and
> inclination and the issue to 
> >type this up for the list?
> Haven't seen that, but here's something comparable,
> from THE SPIKE 
> (formatting will probably go nuts in email, alas):
> =============
> Merkle still cites the August 1995 Wired poll of
> experts (chemistry 
> professor Robert Birge, materials science professor
> Donald W. Brenner, 
> Drexler, computer scientist J. Storrs Hall (JoSH),
> and Nobelist chemist 
> Richard E. Smalley) on several aspects of a
> time-line to working nano. Here 
> are their now somewhat superannuated but interesting
> estimates:
>                                       Birge  Brenner
>  Drexler  Hall   Smalley
> Molecular Assembler: 2005    2025     2015    2010  
>  2000
> Nanocomputer:            2040    2040     2017   
> 2010    2100
> Cell Repair:                 2030    2035     2018  
>  2050    2010
> Commercial product:  2002    2000     2015    2005  
>  2000
> #          Moravec: multipurpose `universal' robots
> by 2010, with 
> `humanlike competence' in cheap computers by around
> 2039--a more 
> conservative estimate than Ray Kurzweil's, but
> astonishing none the less. 
> Even so, he considers a Vingean singularity as
> likely within 50 years.
> #          Kaku: no computer expert, superstring
> physicist Michio Kaku 
> surveyed some 150 scientists in devised a profile of
> the next century and 
> farther. He concludes broadly that from `2020 to
> 2050, the world of 
> computers may well be dominated by invisible,
> networked computers which 
> have the power of artificial intelligence: reason,
> speech recognition, even 
> common sense'.172 In the next century or two, he
> expects humanity to 
> achieve a Type I Kardeshev civilization, with
> planetary governance and 
> technology able to control weather but essentially
> restricted to Earth. 
> Only later, between 800 and 2500 years farther on,
> will humanity pass to 
> Type II, with command of the entire solar system.
> Once the consensus dream 
> of science fiction, this must now be seen as
> excessively conservative.
> #          Vinge: as we noted at the outset, Vernor
> Vinge's part-playful, 
> part-serious proposal that a singularity was
> imminent puts the date at 
> around 2020, marking the end of the human era. Maybe
> as soon as 2014.
> 2.72.  Michio Kaku, Visions (1998), p. 28.
> ========================
> Damien Broderick 
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org


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