[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts
rhanson at gmu.edu
Tue Oct 11 21:36:54 UTC 2005
At 03:00 PM 10/11/2005, Adrian Tymes wrote:
>It has frequently been observed that predictions overpromise in the
>nearterm, and underpromise in the long term.
I've heard this claim made too, but I wonder: has anyone ever
systematically collected evidence to test this claim?
Robin Hanson rhanson at gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Associate Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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