[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts
russell.wallace at gmail.com
Tue Oct 11 21:55:08 UTC 2005
On 10/11/05, Robin Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
> At 03:00 PM 10/11/2005, Adrian Tymes wrote:
> >It has frequently been observed that predictions overpromise in the
> >nearterm, and underpromise in the long term.
> I've heard this claim made too, but I wonder: has anyone ever
> systematically collected evidence to test this claim?
In particular, it's usually justified by saying people predict linearly
rather than exponentially, but Malthus was the last author I've heard of to
meet that description; every prediction I've read that has growth continuing
at all, has taken exponential growth as a conservative baseline (sometimes
accurate), and often then added shortenings of doubling time, asymptotic
growth etc (thus far always inaccurate). I'd be interested in
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