[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts
dirk.bruere at gmail.com
Wed Oct 12 11:47:09 UTC 2005
On 10/12/05, Robin Hanson <rhanson at gmu.edu> wrote:
> It still seems to me that this group tends to base its forecasts a
> bit too much on constructing scenarios, and a bit too little on
> statistics about similar past situations.
I don't think so, except in very specific predictions.
The two key Transhumanist predictions, agreed by both insiders and outsiders
is that computing power will continue along a steepening exponential curve
for at least two more decades; and that the bio sciences are entering the
steep part of exponential growth similar to computer tech circa 1975 (or
thereabouts). General predictions can be drawn from both of these
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