[extropy-chat] Inside Vs. Outside Forecasts

Robert J. Bradbury bradbury at aeiveos.com
Wed Oct 12 14:21:25 UTC 2005

On Wed, 12 Oct 2005, Dirk Bruere wrote:

> I don't think so, except in very specific predictions.
> The two key Transhumanist predictions, agreed by both insiders and outsiders
> is that computing power will continue along a steepening exponential curve
> for at least two more decades;

The "agreement" doesn't mean that they are right.  You have about 4, maybe 5
generations left in terms of current processes (go read the ITRS/SEMATECH
roadmap reports).  Then things are going to have to shift significantly.
So I would say you have a decade -- maybe 15 years.

> and that the bio sciences are entering the
> steep part of exponential growth similar to computer tech circa 1975 (or
> thereabouts).

Not "quite" so.  Though semi-industry evolution has largely been
one of a continual refinement of a basic process, bio-industry
evolution has required significant invention of new methods for
the significant advancements.  The rates of advancement do
not compare well.  (One can be viewed as relatively continuous
while the other is more discontinuous.)


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