[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain, part 2: the bayesian angle
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
sentience at pobox.com
Thu Oct 20 21:04:15 UTC 2005
> Suppose you are taking a class in Bayesian reasoning.
> Your professor decides your grade based on competition
> with the other students: a third of the class will get
> an A, a third gets a B, a third a C.
PPS: This aspect renders the entire problem one of game theory, not
probability theory. Your optimum strategy depends on the strategy
pursued by other players. What you write down *depends* on the
probability you assign to the professor thinking each of the given
answers is correct, but it does not *equal* the probability you assign
to the professor thinking that answer is correct.
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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