[extropy-chat] three coins in a fountain, part 3: the test

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Sat Oct 22 00:23:46 UTC 2005

On 10/22/05, spike <spike66 at comcast.net> wrote:
Assign confidence levels to these scenarios

a)  OJ did it and Fuhrman planted the glove
b)  OJ did it and Fuhrman did not plant the glove
c)  OJ did not do it and Fuhrman planted the glove 
d)  All other possible scenarios

Given that Furman took the fifth when asked if he planted the glove, I'd say
he planted the glove.
Or is it routine, when US police are asked in court whether they planted
evidence, to say "I do not wish to answer that on the grounds I may
incriminate myself"?




As I recall, Fuhrman took the fifth when asked if he had ever

manufactured evidence, not when asked specifically about the

glove.  Still, if you think Fuhrman did it, you still must distribute

confidence between choices a) and c) above.


But this thread is not about OJ, it is about an idea for

making a test with only a few questions that will separate the

contestants.  In the traditional method, any 10 question test

with 1000 participants will yield many equivalent results.


I saw this with the recent Google campaign.  You may recall

that Google was hoping to hire a number of new employees.  They

had a billboard in Mountain View which had only the words

 {first ten digit prime in consecutive digits of e}.com 


I saw the billboard on the way to work, set up a macro and

had the answer within minutes.  Went to that site, which had

another more difficult question, which led to another site, which

had 20 IQ test questions.  It was a cool game, but with 20 

questions, you will get a bunch of people with results in each 

of the 20 possible scores.







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