[extropy-chat] Re: peak oil debate framed from a game theory standpoint ?

[Mike Lorrey]

--- Brian Atkins <brian at posthuman.com> wrote:

> Ok let me simplify and just ask you and/or Hal this:
> 
> If we are to accept that longer term crude futures contracts have any
> worthwhile prediction capabilities, how do we explain the fact that
> the current October 2005 contract (CLV5):
> 
>
<http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=CLV5&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv>
> 
> essentially just has mirrored over its lifetime the spot cash price:
> 
>
<http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&org=stk&sym=CLY0&data=E&code=BSTK&evnt=adv>
> 
> If it truly had some predictive power shouldn't it already have
> jumped up closer to $60 when it started off? As recently as May of
> this year it was below $50, and back as late as June 2004 it was
> below $40. 

The reason futures prices lag current spot prices is that a large
percent of current prices is seen by much of the market as caused by
crisis events, political instability, etc. The Iraq war, Afghanistan,
WOT, the multiple severe hurricanes, the civil war in Nigeria, the
political situation in Venezuela, terrorist attacks in Europe, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Mexico's oil problems, all add up to a very
"interesting" year, particularly since November 04, when prices started
going up significantly. Market experts likely believe that once all of
these crises are past, and assuming no more crop up, that the price of
oil will settle down.



Mike Lorrey
Vice-Chair, 2nd District, Libertarian Party of NH
Founder, Constitution Park Foundation:
http://constitutionpark.blogspot.com
Personal/political blog: http://intlib.blogspot.com

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