[extropy-chat] On difficult choices (was: Books: Harris; Religion and Reason)
m_j_geddes at yahoo.com.au
Wed Jan 18 06:28:24 UTC 2006
>### My 95% confidence interval for the SAI-driven
Singularity is 2015 to 2050, squarely within our
You can't give a confidence interval as high as 95%
but yes, I do agree with your date range. I can't see
the Singularity taking longer than 2050 if it's
possible at all, and I give it a 50-50 chance of
happening before 2030.
I don't see seed-AI as being likely to be created by
any of the well known groups however (for instance
It's been a terrible shock to me to see so many
brilliant thinkers on the transhumanist lists (in the
sense of having really high IQ's) who are actually
quite limited in their thinking (in the sense of
lacking imagination, empathy and rationality).
Take Eliezer for instance. Here you have this really
brilliant fellow gifted with a high IQ, but who is
really quite narrow minded in his thinking. It's very
I tried to lecture people out of their ignorance which
was a really *really* big mistake I see now, since
I've totally alienated nearly every-one on the
transhumanist lists :-( You can't lecture people out
of their ignorance. You can only help them to grow.
Please understand my extreme impatience for getting to
the Singularity and my horror at seeing even brilliant
people going astray. Please understand my
frustration. I lost my head. This doesn't excuse my
behaviour on the lists, but it does I hope, help to
explain it. I lost my head. I'm sorry.
There will never be true general intelligence without
sentience or emotions. An AI without sentience or
emotions will only be a limited AI and will not be
able to initiate a Singularity. Should the design
being purused by the Singularity Institute work at
all, it will at best be a human-level intelligence,
not a recursively self-improving one. Someday the
Sing Inst folks will understand this.
I urge every-one to carefully read the abstract
summary of my *Mathematico-Cognition Reality Theory*
"Till shade is gone, till water is gone, into the shadow with teeth bared, screaming defiance with the last breath, to spit in Sightblinders eye on the last day
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