[extropy-chat] On difficult choices (was: Books: Harris; Religion and Reason)
dirk.bruere at gmail.com
Wed Jan 18 13:58:00 UTC 2006
On 1/18/06, Marc Geddes <m_j_geddes at yahoo.com.au> wrote:
> >### My 95% confidence interval for the SAI-driven
> Singularity is 2015 to 2050, squarely within our
> generation's lifetimes.
> You can't give a confidence interval as high as 95%
> but yes, I do agree with your date range. I can't see
> the Singularity taking longer than 2050 if it's
> possible at all, and I give it a 50-50 chance of
> happening before 2030.
> I don't see seed-AI as being likely to be created by
> any of the well known groups however (for instance
> Sing Inst).
I see a true AI as most likely evolving from a slice-and-map simulation of
an existing brain.
OTOH, maybe a singularity could be generated simply by non general AI progs
like genetic algorithms coupled with data mining tools creating a vast array
of inventions beyond human capability to understand.
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