[extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation

spike spike66 at comcast.net
Sun Jun 18 01:23:59 UTC 2006

> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Amara Graps

> ... we're socially willing to
> commit nigh-infinite social resources to fighting terrorism, though
> statistically, terrorist attacks almost never happen... Amara Graps, PhD

Ja, of course some terrorists are caught before they attack.  We may not
even know when terrorist attacks are thwarted, since we can imagine a lot of
advantage in not publicizing them.  We can also imagine fake terrorist
attacks trumped up by authorities in order to justify their salaries.

Consider the seventeen suspected Presbyterians with no apparent cultural
connection, representing a broad spectrum of Canadian society, recently
caught plotting to either blow up public buildings in Canada or take up


Canadian authorities are racking their brains, struggling to imagine what
could possibly have motivated these individuals.


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