[extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation

Samantha Atkins sjatkins at mac.com
Sun Jun 18 22:38:02 UTC 2006


Changing our plans, even for mass transit, for what you yourself  
admit is a extraordinarily small possibility does not strike me as  
reasonable.   Can this society get off the Fear drug and get on with  
life again?  I fervently hope so.   It is certainly not possible to  
eliminate or guard against all that we may fear will do us harm.   
Many current aspects of the very effort do us harm.

- samantha

On Jun 17, 2006, at 6:18 PM, spike wrote:

>> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of Amara Graps
> ...
>> This is important stuff -- it explains why we're socially willing to
>> commit nigh-infinite social resources to fighting terrorism, though
>> statistically, terrorist attacks almost never happen... Amara  
>> Graps, PhD
>
>
> The probability of being slain by a terrorist is extraordinarily  
> small, yet
> its social impact is enormous.  Consider for instance the dance we  
> do every
> time we get on a plane: we have our shoes examined.  One man  
> spawned an
> entire industry, without even successfully slaying a single infidel.
>
> Theoretical terrorism makes a compelling case for not investing in  
> subways,
> because they are *inherently* difficult to defend from a  
> terrorist.  Since
> tunnels trap heat, one could slay a bunch of infidels with a few  
> dollars
> worth of flammable liquid and a simple time delay igniter.  Since  
> one need
> not give one's identity to board a subway, one could get away with it
> without even going to meet one's 73 virgins.  Looks to me like  
> investments
> in subways are a waste, now and henceforth forever.  Cities will  
> develop
> differently knowing that mass transit via subway is impractical.
>
> spike
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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