[extropy-chat] Psychology of bad probability estimation

[Samantha Atkins]

I don't know what to make of this "news".  When what is happening  
comes second hand in a book that some anonymous "officials" say is  
partly true then it is difficult to know what is real or be an  
informed citizen of this supposed democracy.

- samantha

On Jun 17, 2006, at 9:29 PM, spike wrote:

>
>> bounces at lists.extropy.org] On Behalf Of spike
> ...
>> Theoretical terrorism makes a compelling case for not investing in
>> subways,
>> because they are *inherently* difficult to defend from a  
>> terrorist.  Since
>> tunnels trap heat, one could slay a bunch of infidels with a few  
>> dollars
>> worth of flammable liquid and a simple time delay igniter.  Since  
>> one need
>> not give one's identity to board a subway, one could get away with it
>> without even going to meet one's 73 virgins.  Looks to me like  
>> investments
>> in subways are a waste, now and henceforth forever.  Cities will  
>> develop
>> differently knowing that mass transit via subway is impractical.
>>
>> spike
>
>
> Altho a remarkable coincidence, I wrote the above paragraph a few  
> hours
> before this report showed up on CNN:
>
> http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/06/17/subway.plot/index.html
>
>
> Report: Al Qaeda planned N.Y. subway attack
>
> Saturday, June 17, 2006; Posted: 11:30 p.m. EDT (03:30 GMT)
>
> Osama bin Laden's top deputy halted a plot to release a poison gas  
> in New
> York's subway system "only 45 days from zero hour," according to a  
> new book
> excerpted Saturday on Time magazine's Web site.
>
> Two former U.S. officials with knowledge of the terror plan  
> confirmed to CNN
> on Saturday night some details from Pulitzer Prize-winning  
> journalist Ron
> Suskind's "The One Percent Doctrine," but disagreed with others.
>
> One former official agreed that bin Laden's second-in-command, Ayman
> al-Zawahiri, called off the al Qaeda attack. The reason for his  
> doing so was
> not made clear.
>
> Both former officials said the United States was familiar with the  
> design of
> the gas-dispersal device and had passed the information to state  
> and local
> officials.
>
> They disagreed with Suskind that the terrorists were thwarted  
> within 45 days
> of the planned attack; the officials said the proposed timing was  
> not that
> precise.
>
> "We were aware of the plot and took appropriate precautions," Paul  
> Browne,
> New York City Police Department deputy commissioner, told CNN.
>
> FBI spokesman Bill Carter said no one at the agency has seen the  
> book and
> had no comment.
>
> According to Time's report on the book, U.S. intelligence learned  
> of the
> plot from the contents of a laptop computer belonging to a Bahraini  
> jihadist
> captured in Saudi Arabia early in 2003.
>
> Terrorists had planned to disperse hydrogen-cyanide gas, which is  
> deadly
> when inhaled, using a system dubbed "the mubtakkar," meaning  
> "invention" in
> Arabic, the Time article says.
>
> The CIA immediately set about building a prototype based on the  
> captured
> design, which had separate chambers for sodium cyanide and a stable  
> source
> of hydrogen, such as hydrochloric acid. A seal between the two  
> could be
> broken remotely, producing the gas for dispersal, according to Time.
>
> "In the world of terrorist weaponry," Suskind writes, "this was the
> equivalent of splitting the atom. Obtain a few widely available  
> chemicals,
> and you could construct it with a trip to Home Depot -- and then kill
> everyone in the store."
>
> The device was shown to President Bush and Vice President Cheney,  
> Suskind
> wrote.
>
> One of the former officials who talked to CNN said officials didn't
> necessarily believe Suskind's reference to the device having the  
> capability
> of killing "everyone in a store."
>
> "Our feeling was, it could be dangerous in a tightly sealed  
> environment but
> not in a shopping mall-type environment," the official said.
>
> On the other hand, the reference to a tip about the gas-dispersion  
> device as
> coming from Bahrain was true, one of the officials confirmed to  
> CNN. But the
> official could not confirm whether it came from a laptop belonging  
> to Yusef
> al Ayeri, bin Laden's top operative on the Arabian Peninsula.
>
> Al Ayeri was killed in a gun battle between Saudi security forces  
> and al
> Qaeda militants about the time the United States invaded Iraq in  
> March 2003.
>
>
> Suskind quotes a CIA operative as questioning whether it was an  
> accident
> that the Saudis killed the man who could expose a cell that was  
> planning a
> chemical weapons attack in the United States.
>
> "The Saudis just shrugged," Time quotes the source as telling  
> Suskind. "They
> said their people got a little overzealous."
>
> A mole within al Qaeda?
> Suskind, according to Time, writes that a "management-level" al Qaeda
> operative identified as "Ali" had given U.S. agents accurate tips  
> and had
> believed his leaders had erred in attacking the United States on  
> September
> 11, 2001.
>
> "Ali revealed that Ayeri had visited Ayman Zawahiri in January 2003 to
> inform him of a plot to attack the New York City subway system  
> using cyanide
> gas. Several mubtakkars were to be placed in subway cars and other  
> strategic
> locations," according to the Time report.
>
> "Ali did not know the precise explanation why" al-Zawahiri called  
> off the
> plot, Time quoted Suskind as writing. "He just knew that Zawahiri  
> had called
> them off."
>
> Meanwhile, administration officials wondered why Ali was  
> cooperating -- and
> why the plot was called off, Suskind wrote, according to Time.
>
> Time magazine is owned by Time-Warner, the parent company of CNN
>
>
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