[extropy-chat] Peak Oil news

Neil H. neuronexmachina at gmail.com
Tue Mar 7 04:15:08 UTC 2006

On 3/6/06, "Hal Finney" <hal at finney.org> wrote:
> It's not clear how to interpret this, but on its face it doesn't seem
> to point to a particularly drastic Peak Oil scenario.  OTOH if you
> look at options contracts they give you an idea of the range of prices
> the markets expect, and that turns out to be very wide.  If you look
> at prices at the end of 2008, the one-sigma price range is $34-104,
> which corresponds to a 68% chance.  The two-sigma range, corresponding
> to a 95% chance, is $20-180.  So the markets are certainly not ruling
> out oil in the high $100's in the two to three year time frame.  Such a
> high price would almost certainly cause a serious recession.  Of course
> the markets aren't ruling out $20-30 oil either, in which case we can
> go back to bathing in the stuff.

A slightly off-topic question: Is there a way to quickly plot the sigmas for
futures markets?

-- Neil
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