[ExI] on inflation in long term thinking

[Russell Wallace]

On 7/31/07, Samantha Atkins <sjatkins at mac.com> wrote:

> What bothers me is the implicit notion rational decision making requires
> maximal extension of hypotheticals.   None of us have any real idea whether
> humanity or its descendants have a future beyond this planet, solar system
> or local galactic neighborhood.  That we might perhaps become or create
> near-gods that touch the entire galaxy eventually can surely be said of
> every reasonably sapient species in the universe.   But is it really
> rational to judge risk to humanity as equating to a major risk to the entire
> universe?   I don't see how this is justified.   Do we judge a human being
> not just on his own character and likely potential but on the potential of
> all those myriad of beings he might possibly be an ancestor to plus all
> those artificial beings that he might create or have some small part in
> creating and all their works as well?  Surely this throws reasonable
> context, likelihood analysis and any basis for rational decision making into
> disarray.
>
> So what is the proper means of cleaning this up?  How is it properly
> delimited to something actually useful?  Am I missing something?
>

I can see the philosophical justification for it, but I agree with you that
it's not useful. In practice, following that train of thought just leads us
into a state of mind where we're not thinking straight; we end up letting
fear and despair make our decisions for us, and in that condition we flinch
away from (not rationally guard against, but flinch away from) that which
_appears_ dangerous - and likely as not, right into the jaws of that which
truly _is_ dangerous.

I can't speak for everyone, but for myself I've decided the best approach
is:

1) I acknowledge I cannot know what will happen in the distant future.

2) That doesn't mean I can't hope. The hope of future wonders can't provide
detailed guidance for the here and now, but it can provide inspiration.

3) My scope for action extends over the next few years, maybe couple of
decades, and that is the timescale on which I make plans.
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